Jakarta – In early April, one of the most credible pollsters following the Indonesian presidential race gave Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo a 30-point lead over his rival, Prabowo Subianto – a significant advantage that led it to declare that the race appeared "well and truly over, even before it's begun."
Fast-forward three months to today, and that same pollster, Roy Morgan, is now saying the race is "too close to call," in a nod to Prabowo's astounding surge over the past several weeks.
Roy Morgan's latest monthly survey, involving 3,117 respondents above the age of 17 across Indonesia, showed 52 percent saying they would vote for Joko, and 48 percent for Prabowo. The figures show a significant improvement for the latter, who polled at just 24 percent in Roy Morgan's previous survey, in May, and at 15 percent in April. Joko, meanwhile, has only improved marginally, from 45 percent in April – when he held a massive 30-point lead over Prabowo – followed by a dip in May to 42 percent.
The pollster noted that Prabowo "clearly gained support from those who were previously supporting other candidates, to a far greater extent than did Joko." "While Joko is still ahead, Prabowo could win if the swing to Prabowo continues in the time that remains before voting day on July 9," it said in a statement.
Debnath Guharoy, the Asia-Pacific regional director at Roy Morgan Research, said factors like Prabowo and his running mate Hatta Rajasa's performances in the presidential and vice presidential debates had managed to sway voters.
"The Prabowo-Hatta camp have worked hard at closing the gap. Today's media scene in Indonesia is markedly different from the election that brought SBY to office," he said, referring to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
"Just about everybody watches TV regularly and Prabowo and [...] Hatta fared well in the debates. Today, nine out of 10 [voters] have a mobile phone, one in three have a smartphone. Those phones must have been very busy, with voters exchanging views and shaping public opinion. A single event in the next seven days – positive or negative – could tip the scales."
Several other pollsters also have Prabowo three to four percentage points behind Joko, while others put his in the lead.
The results of a survey published on Thursday by the Political Communication Institute, or Polcomm, gave Prabowo 46.8 percent and Joko 45.3 percent, from a field of 1,200 respondents from across the country.
"It's difficult to predict who will win," said Polcomm director Heri Budianto, calling the closeness of the race unprecedented in Indonesian politics. "The tension is getting higher. We hope the presidential election will run well and smoothly," he added.
Fadli Zon, a deputy chairman of Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), said the results were in line with the figures from the party's own surveys. He added he was confident that Prabowo's slight lead on Joko would be more apparent at the July 9 ballot.
He also denied that Prabowo had been able to catch up so fast because of a relentless smear campaign against Joko. "If Joko says the increase [in Prabowo's popularity] is due to smear campaigns, we want to emphasize that we have nothing to do with those campaigns," Fadli said.
He did, however, say that his camp had conducted what he called "negative campaigning" against their rival. "We convey that based on facts. For instance, when I say Joko lies a lot. I can't be sued for that because there are facts and data to support that statement," he said.
Akbar Faisal, a member of Joko's campaign team, questioned Polcomm's polling methods, saying that while "it's true the numbers are getting closer," the results themselves were "confused."
Ira Soekirman, the Roy Morgan Research Indonesia director, said that while her organization's survey still had Joko leading, it also highlighted that up to 9 percent of eligible voters were still undecided – a significant figure, given the tight margin.
She said Joko was very popular but his campaigns relied mostly on a largely disorganized army of volunteers, while Prabowo's campaigns were better organized and better funded.
Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/poll-close-call-prabowo-surges/