Josua Gantan, Jakarta – New polls suggest presidential candidate Joko Widodo's initial lead over Prabowo Subianto has narrowed, or possibly even disappeared, with some pollsters choosing to keep results confidential, apparently to avoid affecting impressionable voters.

Dodi Ambardi from the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) told the Jakarta Globe that according to an LSI survey conducted from June 1 to 10, Joko was at that time still in the lead with 42 percent, followed by Prabowo at 39 percent. The survey results have a margin of error of 2.2 percent, with 2009 respondents across the country.

That means the LSI survey's margin of error is almost as large as Joko's ostensible 3 percent lead over Prabowo in terms of respective electability. By contrast, just six months ago, most pollsters including the LSI reported that the margin between Joko and Prabowo, on average, hovered at about 20 percent.

Meanwhile, two of Indonesia's most reliable pollsters have refused to publicize their latest survey data.

Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) was the first to refuse to disclose its most recent results. "[The survey] is only for internal purposes, not for publication," Djayadi Hanan, research director of SMRC told the Globe.

When pushed to reveal the general trend from his most recent poll, Djayadi only replied, "It's getting closer and closer." "If you look at the developments of the available data from credible pollsters, the battle is getting fiercer," he added.

Chilling results

Pundits speculated that the SMRC refused to publicize its latest data for fear that it might negatively affect Joko's electability.

Similarly, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – another pollster that is generally considered reliable – refused to release its most recent survey data. The suspicion is that the reasons for keeping the results secret are the same as for the SMRC.

Rizal Sukma, CSIS's executive director has a close relationship with Joko and serves as the candidate's foreign policy adviser, preparing Joko for the presidential debates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU).

Joko's running mate, former vice president Jusuf Kalla, said on Wednesday that Indonesian voters were easily influenced by poll results. They are prone to voting for winners – those who are shown to be already in the lead by poll results.

"Psychologically, survey [results] can influence people. People will potentially follow the winner," Kalla said.

He added, however, that both he and Joko would not allow their spirits to be dented by poll results. "Regardless of that, we will continue to work hard. We are not dependent on surveys," he said.

Dubious surveys

Not all survey outfits in Indonesia are considered unbiased and reliable, says Andrinof Chaniago, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.

"I was the chairman of the association of Indonesia's public opinion survey firms [Persepsi], so I know which ones [pollsters] can be trusted, and which ones not to trust," Andrinof told the Globe.

"It would be right to conclude that the trend shows that there is a slight decrease for Joko and there a slight increase for Prabowo," he added.

"A 5 percent difference is sensible. Look at the aggressive steps that have been taken by Prabowo's team." He said, however, that he believed Joko was still ahead.

"My estimate is that Joko is still leading by a margin of 6 percent to 8 percent. That's based on data that I have from pollsters that I can trust," he said. He said that Prabowo's true popularity was probably about 42 percent at the most, while Joko's was 48 percent at the least.

Andrinof further predicted that the margin would not change much before July 9, when some 190 million Indonesians are registered to cast their votes. He predicted that the final results would be 53 percent for Joko and 47 percent for Prabowo, with the margin of difference at 5 to 6 percent.

Strongman figure

Prabowo's success in branding himself as a firm leader, and the solid political machine in the form of establishment political parties backing him up are considered the twin reasons behind Prabowo's ability to close the gap on Joko.

Aleksius Jemadu, a political analyst from Pelita Harapan University, attributed Prabowo's growing popularity to his campaign team's aggressive moves. "His message is quite effective, a firm, nationalist leader who wants to improve Indonesia's dignity," Aleksius said.

Indonesians long for firm leaders, Aleksius said, while noting that the general public presently perceived the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as prone to vacillation. Hence it is only to expected that many prefer a figure that exudes a stronger character in the coming election, he said. "Prabowo fulfills the public longing for a firm leader, and that affects voters," Aleksius said.

Prabowo has successfully branded himself as a firm and brave leader, an ex-military general who will not hesitate to make difficult choices. "Meanwhile, that image does not exist for Joko. He is more of a humble leader," Aleksius said.

Further, Prabowo has the backing of some the most solid political parties in Indonesia. The Golkar Party, which has never been in the opposition since its founding as former dictator Suharto's political vehicle, has thrown its considerable regional network behind the ex-general.

The relatively new political Islamist vehicle the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) is another of the several key parties supporting Prabowo's presidential bid.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/polls-paint-tight-finish-prabowo-surges/