Hotman Siregar & Ezra Sihite, Jakarta – Although Prabowo Subianto's chance to win the presidential election seems better on paper with the backing of his coalition, analysts have warned that it may not be that easy to defeat rival Joko Widodo
The coalition between Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Hatta Rajasa's National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and Golkar Party gained a combined 48.5 percent of the votes in the legislative election.
But analysts say presidential elections are not the same as legislative elections where voters pick their candidates based on what political party they represent. The presidential election is more about a competition of personalities rather than a competition of political parties, they say.
Joko Widodo, the presidential candidate for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – who is running with former vice president and former Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla – only has around about 40 percent of the votes with support of the PDI-P, the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura).
Political analyst Andrinof Chaniago said even though the Prabowo-Hatta coalition has secured nearly 50 percent support and that it could grow by another 10.7 percent if the Democratic Party decided to join them, it would not be easy to defeat the Joko-Kalla coalition.
"Regional and presidential elections are more about individuals and their ability to project themselves to a larger audience. There is almost no correlation between parliamentary support and the presidential and regional elections," Andrinof said in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Heri Budianto, an analyst of the Political Communication Institute, corroborated Andrinof's opinion, saying this election will be the same as the 2004 and 2009 elections where a presidential figure would play the biggest factor.
Heri said that support from political parties is important but it will not the main attraction for voters. "The presidential election will mostly be affected by the individual being put forward for election," Heri said.
He said support from political parties would be helpful if their political machines were able to work effectively to bring in the masses and if the parties had loyal supporters.
The political analyst cited PKS as the party that has loyal supporters and that may contribute to Prabowo's presidential chances. "If a party is successful in getting its core support out on election day then they can make a difference," Heri said.
He said he did not feel there would be much difference in the final numbers this year compared to the last two elections. "My prediction is that the 2014 election will not follow party lines," he said.
Dian Permata, a senior researcher from the Founding Father House (FFH), said a survey conducted in March showed that 40.74 percent of respondents would choose their presidential and vice presidential candidates based on their capabilities.
The respondents indicated that they would also take into consideration factors such as candidates' personalities, vision, mission, work programs and their track records. Some voters could also take the religious and ethnic backgrounds of the candidates into consideration.
"This means it can be harder to predict just which way voters will go when they enter the polling booth," Dian said.
Andrinof said that the Prabowo-Hatta coalition was not one based on ideology but that it was built on personal and political ambitions and interests.
He cited Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakri as an example. When ABR, as he is known, went from PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri to the Democratic Party chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Gerindra's chief patron Prabowo, he was not offering a shared vision of how to run the country. ABR's aim was to forge a coalition that would assure him and his party of a powerful position.
"Ibu Megawati does not want to work with a politician who lacks a firm position on key political issues. Bu Mega is consistent about her principle and is not pragmatic. I think this was the factor that made bu Mega reject ARB's overtures," Andrinof said.
Yudhoyono, he added, initially planned to form a new coalition axis with Golkar but the Democratic Party's national leaders meeting concluded that party members were unwilling to form a new grouping or to support the two-coalition axis formed by PDI-P and Gerindra. Democrats wanted to stay neutral.
Despite saying that it will stay neutral, analysts believe the Democratic Party will eventually throw its support behind the Prabowo-Hatta bid given that Yudhoyono and Hatta are in-laws and that Prabowo has also often praised Yudhoyono's success in maintaining economic growth.
"Pak SBY played it beautifully in the coalition game. By refusing to be drawn into either of the emerging coalitions, he stayed in the background and reduced ARB's chances of a presidential bid of his own," Andrinof said.