Kennial Caroline Laia, Jakarta – It was a remarkable, yet predictable step for Joko Widodo, the hugely popular presidential hopeful of the Indonesian Democratic of Struggle, or PDI-P, to pick Jusuf Kalla, a former vice president and also a former Golkar Party chairman, as his running mate.
This came after his rival Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party named former chief economy minister Hatta Rajasa his running mate.
As the Jakarta Globe had earlier predicted, Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie would not make it into the political ring either as a presidential or vice presidential candidate.
Aburizal initially had plans to run for the presidency and although he was later touted as a possible vice presidential candidate, he has failed in his bids to form coalitions with other political parties ahead of the presidential election.
After he appeared to have joined forces with Prabowo, it was not to be. Aburizal then sought a political agreement with the PDI-P as was evident from his meeting with Joko in Central Jakarta's Johar Market.
However, the coalition trial turned out to be a nonstarter after his meeting with PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri at her home in Menteng, Central Jakarta.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, chairman of the Democratic Party, also announced on Sunday that it would not form any coalition in the upcoming election by saying that "it is respectable for the Democrats to be independent and not beg for power from other parties."
Losing hope to form a new coalition with the Democratic Party, Golkar finally made a last-minute decision to join Gerindra, who earlier last week had announced that Hatta Rajasa would be Prabowo's running mate. Aburizal's ambition to occupy the most powerful position in the country now seems all but over.
Political analyst Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia said with Kalla running as Joko's vice presidential candidate, Golkar's support would inevitably be affected, whether from the party cadres or Indonesian voters.
"There are many cadres that are keen to join the Joko axis because the Jakarta governor has a better chance of winning compared with Prabowo," Arbi said. "It is purely reasonable considering that those cadres are still sniffing for positions of power," he added.
Arbi also commented that Golkar's decision to join Gerindra was nothing more than a gamble, saying that the party was at risk of losing the presidential battle. "Most of the votes will go for Joko and Kalla," he said.
Meanwhile, Hanta Yuda, executive director of the Pol-Tracking Institute, echoed the sentiment, saying that even without the official support from his party, Kalla would be able to gain enough votes in the election.
"Kalla is a strong figure who could greatly influence the direction of the support within Golkar. He is able to get the party's machinery to back him up," Hanta said. "The support among Golkar's cadres will be varied. It surely will be polarized," he said.
However, Hanta emphasized that the divided support within Golkar should not be seen as a rift. "This had happened before. Back in 2004, when Kalla became a running mate for Yudhoyono, Golkar also did not support him. They went to the Wiranto axis," he said.
"It is more like a dynamic for Golkar. With Aburizal as its chairman plus its historical surviving record, the Golkar Party could face this year like it did before," Hanta said.
Furthermore, Arbi of the University of Indonesia pointed out that Aburizal had been left by many of his supporters across the country, except for the central office in Jakarta.
"Aburizal has seemingly in his efforts to get a 'best solution' for his own interest, allowed his party to be left unmanaged. He is nowhere but in a fragile position right now," the political analyst said.
"With its poor performance in forming a coalition with other parties, Golkar should rather consider forming part of the opposition with the Democratic Party. It is time for those parties to feel the bitter reality of being outside the governmental system," he said.
"By being in opposition within parliament, they can start to learn how to development this nation critically and honestly," he said.
Arbi emphasized that another issue that may impact the internal workings of Golkar is the divided support among its cadres. Compared with Kalla, Aburizal is less favored, which is why Arbi predicts that many Golkar cadres could act to force the party in the near future to give its full support to the running pair of Joko and Kalla.
"Aburizal could even get impeached by the party he chaired," Arbi said. "It depends on when the party's congress will take place. If the party holds its congress after the presidential election, he might be impeached," Arbi said. "Not to mention if Joko-Kalla wins, the possibility is higher," he added.
"However if it is held before the election, the chance is more vague, but the possibility is still there," Arbi said.
Yunarto Wijaya, executive director of Charta Politika, also held the same view, saying the status of Aburizal as Golkar chairman would be determined by the election result.
"With his poor performance to successfully enter a coalition with other parties, the relatively low number of votes the party attracted, and the fact that this year Golkar becomes only an observer of the political landscape, prove Aburizal's lack of management steering the party," he said. "And it could be a perfect chain which would culminate in the impeachment of Aburizal as a Golkar chairman," he said.
Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/aburizal-may-facing-possible-impeachment-golkar-analysts-say/