Carlos Paath & Rizky Amelia – The naming of Ratu Atut Chosiyah, the governor of Banten and a Golkar Party stalwart, as a suspect in at least two corruption cases could change the political map of the province, long under the control of the country's grand old party.
Karyono WIbowo, an analyst with the Indonesian Public Institute, a think tank, said on Jakarta on Wednesday that with Ratu Atut now charged, it was just a matter of time before the dynasty that she had built up across Banten would start crumbling, leading to the dawn of "a new political constellation."
"The allegations of bribery involving Ratu Atut could impact the Golkar Party's image," he said, adding that other parties would be poised to take advantage of the power shift, especially with the legislative elections beckoning next April.
Siti Zuhro, a political analyst with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), agreed that the case would weaken Golkar's standing in the polls next year. "With another member of the party being named a suspect, the public's trust in Golkar will be affected," she said.
"It's this level of trust that will determine the legitimacy and therefore the electability of the party, so like it or not, Golkar will have to deal with the consequences of this case in the 2014 legislative election." Siti suggested that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the country's main opposition party, stood to gain the most from the anticipated decline in Golkar's poll numbers.
Rano Karno, the Banten deputy governor who is poised to take over the province's top seat once Ratu Atut stands trial, is a PDI-P member. The PDI-P also has in its advantage the fact that Rano and Ratu Atut failed to see eye-to-eye on a host of issues, with Rano even considering quitting at one point shortly before the corruption scandal broke.
Recent surveys indicate the two parties are the most popular among voters, with Golkar carrying a slight edge over the PDI-P. Both have benefited as a result of the litany of graft cases that have hammered the ruling Democratic Party, by far the most popular in the 2009 elections, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), currently the biggest Islamic-based party in the country.
A survey in May by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed that Golkar would win the most votes, 13.2 percent, if the election were held at that time, with the PDI-P a close second with 12.7 percent.
Siti said the PDI-P could easily overtake Golkar as the Ratu Atut investigation played out in the run-up to the election. "Golkar's image hasn't been too positive because of the corruption issue," she said.
"During the upcoming campaign period, other parties can take advantage [of the situation] to win more votes in the legislative election. Parties that are not mired in corruption cases can start promoting themselves to the detriment of those that are currently implicated in graft issues."
Priyo Budi Santoso, a senior Golkar politician and a deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, said separately that Ratu Atut's case might have negative repercussions on the party, but stressed that the alleged transgressions of an individual party member should not reflect on Golkar as a whole.
"This is a big blow to us, to be sure, but we should not lose heart," he said. "We are sure the KPK" – the Corruption Eradication Commission – "will act professionally and according to the law in its investigation."
Others within the party have also sought to distance Golkar from Ratu Atut's actions. Ace Hasan, the secretary general of Golkar's central executive board, said the party's Banten chapter had never really been heavily dependent on the governor, whose late husband was the chapter leader and a Golkar House legislator.
"As a party that implements a well-structured membership system, Golkar doesn't solely depend on one figure. There are other members of the party with much potential and roots," he said, citing other leading party members in the province such as Tangerang district chief Zaki Iskandar and Cilegon Mayor Tubagus Iman Aryadi.
"There are also party members in the local legislatures who are working intensively with the community, and of course the party's structure remains solid in facing the 2014 general election."
Several Golkar officials have called for the government to immediately dismiss Ratu Atut, the country's only female governor, from her seat. The Home Affairs Ministry's policy in such cases is not to act until the individual has been indicted, in which case they are suspended. An elected official may only be formally dismissed once convicted.
"The president and the Home Affairs Ministry should go ahead" and remove Ratu Atut from office, Priyo said. "As for Golkar, the party will soon be taking strict action about this, just you wait and see."
He declined to say what the party would do about the suspect's position in Golkar, where she serves as a deputy treasurer – a position typically reserved for those able to raise funds for their parties.
Akbar Tanjung, Golkar's chief patron and arguably its most influential and respected official, said in Surabaya that he had called on chairman Aburizal Bakrie to "take a stance" by immediately dismissing Ratu Atut from the party, to minimize the fallout to Golkar from her case.
Akbar, a former Golkar chairman, also denied speculation that some of the trillions of rupiah that the governor and her family are accused of having embezzled over the years made its way into the party's coffers.