Anastasia Winanti & Ezra Sihite – Candidates from nationalist parties have trumped their religious-party counterparts in the latest survey of presidential contenders conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle.
Topping the list, announced on Sunday, was former President Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) with 21 percent, followed by tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, of Golkar Party, with 20 percent; former military general Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) with 19 percent; and fellow former general Wiranto of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), with 8 percent.
The highest-polling candidate from an Islamic party was Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa from the National Mandate Party (PAN), in fifth place at 6.4 percent.
"Figures from Islam-based parties were overshadowed by nationalist figures," Adjie Alfaraby, a researcher from the polling company known as LSI, said at his office in Jakarta on Sunday.
Adjie said Suryadarma Ali, chairman of the Islam-focused United Development Party (PPP), netted just 1.9 percent support, while Muhaimin Iskandar, chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), gained 1.6 percent support and Anis Matta, chairman of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), only won 1.1 percent support.
All four of the Islam-based parties mentioned are part of the government coalition led by the Democratic Party, none of whose candidates notched up a result.
The trend toward nationalist parties continued when voters were asked to consider their preferred vice presidential candidate.
The LSI found the top four candidates for the number-two job were Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, affiliated with the PDI-P, with 35 percent; former Vice President Jusuf Kalla, currently without a party affiliation, with 21 percent; Hatta with 17 percent; and unaffiliated senior judge Mahfud M.D. with 15 percent support.
The poor results for figures from Islam-based political parties matched their parties' lack of popularity. All Islam-based parties eligible for the 2014 general election received less than 5 percent support, and none made it in the top four.
The survey of 1,200 people was conducted from March 1 to 8. The survey identified three factors that contributed to the lack of support for candidates from Islam-based parties, LSI said.
Firstly, a lack of exposure, with only 30 percent of survey respondents saying they had seen Islam-based political figures in advertisements or engaging in activities.
Secondly, a lack of funds, with 75 percent of respondents saying figures from Islam-based political parties lacked sufficient wealth to compete in the general election.
Thirdly, intense competition, with 61 percent of respondents saying that nationalist figures can accommodate the interests of Islamic groups.
Adjie said that compared to the 2009 general election, Golkar support had increased by 8 percentage points, while PDI-P's backing was steady and that of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrats had fallen dramatically.