In spite of a peaceful finish to the Democratic Party national leadership meeting on Sunday, the chairmanship of Anas remains in peril. The contentious issue confronting him is the party's selection of legislative candidates for the 2014 election. The Jakarta Post's Hans David Tampubolon explores the issue.
Knowing that pragmatism and lust for power are the two main characteristics of his Democratic Party, it will be very difficult for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to keep his firm grip on the party's reins, unable as he is to extend his 10-year tenure as head of state and government.
The most urgent party business demanding SBY's attention is ensuring he is fully in command of preparation of the candidate list for next year's national and regional legislative elections. If he loses control of this process, his legacy for the nation may also be lost.
Even if the party were fully solid and there was no infighting at all, he would still have the problem of ensuring that all members remained fully faithful to him. Now this is much more difficult than ever. The party faces a leadership and even identity crisis following the detention and conviction of several iconic party figures.
Allegations remain allegations and no charges have been brought yet, but for the public, it is apparently just a matter of time until party chairman Anas Urbaningrum follows his comrades in to jail for his involvement in at least one mega-scandal.
Many people, including the upper echelons of his own party, are disappointed with Yudhoyono's hesitance to dismiss Anas. They believe this is the only way to regain public confidence, which continues to plummet following the seemingly endless trail of corruption that follows the party elite.
The Democratic Party, which Yudhoyono set up in 2001, was skyrocketing after just two elections. Just like any other world leader or politician it is natural that he hopes to leave an eternal legacy for the country and that he, or his family, will remain in control of political party he founded and fostered.
In the 2004 legislative elections the party won 7.45 percent of the vote and Yudhoyono squarely defeated his former Cabinet boss, the then incumbent president Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Five years later, in 2009, the Democratic Party became the largest faction in the House of Representatives (DPR) with 20.8 percent of the popular vote.
Yudhoyono knows all too well that he cannot repeat his political "blunder" during the party congress of 2010. Yudhoyono's inaction, or perhaps complacency, resulted in a landslide victory for Anas in the chairmanship contest, against all of the President's wishes.
So far, Yudhoyono has chosen the safest strategy: wait until the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) declared Anas a suspect. At that time, the integrity pact Anas signed last week will require him to resign.
Nevertheless, questions remain on how long the cease fire between Anas and Yudhoyono will last in the run up to the 2014 elections.
One of the most crucial items on the agenda for the Democrats is formulation of the candidate list. According to the law, the list must be signed and endorsed by the party chairman and secretary-general.
Despite of the fact that Anas is still the official Democratic Party chairman, most of his authority has been delegated to Yudhoyono, who is also head of the high assembly, the highest authority in the party.
Yudhoyono took over most of Anas' power following a general assumption that Anas was about to be named a suspect by the KPK in the Hambalang sports complex case.
Charta Politika political analyst Yunarto Wijaya reckons that Anas and Yudhoyono will definitely go head-to-head once again when it comes to the final formulation of the candidate list.
"Legislative candidates are recommended by the party's regional branches and most of them are loyal to Anas, but on the other hand, the high assembly led by Yudhoyono has a veto over candidates for the House of Representatives. The power struggle between Anas and Yudhoyono is still far from over," he said.
"Both Anas and Yudhoyono have different vested interests for 2014. Anas will be thinking about his own future while Yudhoyono will be thinking about how to secure his own position when he is no longer in power," he added.
Senior Democratic Party politician Achmad Mubarok believes that Anas has definitely changed the policy-making mechanism in the party. It is now less centralized and with greater participation from regional branches in determining crucial issues, like the legislative candidate list.
"Before Anas became chairman, legislative candidates were determined by the central executive board [DPP] and then were approved by the board of patrons. Now, regional branches nominate candidates directly to the DPP," Mubarok said.
Mubarok, however, does not acknowledge that Anas and Yudhoyono are heading for another showdown over final authorization of the list.
"The high assembly is now involved to protect us from legal problems with candidates in the future. The assembly will check their backgrounds to ensure we have the best candidates. The chairman is part of the assembly, so there will be no rifts over the list," he said.
If the high assembly secures dominance over the list, then it seems very likely that regional representation will become a secondary priority and the candidate list will be dominated by the DPP.
Democratic Party Banggai branch chairman Ever Kusganda expects the high assembly to properly formulate the candidate list based on regional representation.
"You cannot nominate someone from Java to represent a region in central Sulawesi. We need a representative that knows about his or her region. If the DPP dominate the list, regional branches will surely file objections," Ever said.