Zakir Hussain, Jakarta – Leaders of Indonesia's ruling Democrat Party are seeking to quash talk of a split in their ranks, days after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono warned them to be mentally prepared to lose the top spot in the 2014 elections.

As chief of the party's advisory board, the President has also set cadres a target of 15 percent of parliamentary seats. This is well below the party's 21 percent in 2009, but higher than what several recent opinion polls put its support at.

Observers say the sombre warning is at odds with party chairman Anas Urbaningrum's optimism that the Democrats may have lost the battle for the airwaves, but remain strong on the ground.

Anas, for his part, said the party's fortunes are also tied to the government's performance in the months to come.

What all sides agree on, however, is that the Democrats face a rocky year ahead. "There is no split in the party," senior advisory board member Achmad Mubarok said in an interview with The Straits Times.

"The President was being realistic. His larger message is that we have to press on and give our best, while being mindful that we may also have to accept defeat."

Party members were clear where the chief of their 11-year-old party was coming from: A spate of high-profile corruption cases this year has all but dragged the party down from the pedestal of clean government that it had touted in the past two elections that propelled it to power.

The last straw came two weeks ago, when promising Youth and Sports Minister Andi Mallarangeng, who was close to Yudhoyono, resigned after being named as a graft suspect by the authorities in an ongoing investigation into the Hambalang sports complex project in West Java.

He had first been fingered by former party treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin, who was sentenced to nearly five years' jail for graft in April. Nazaruddin had also fingered Anas, who maintains his innocence, but that has not stopped speculation that he could be the next to fall.

Anas, a former student leader, has in fact consolidated his support in the party, displacing vocal critic and lawmaker Ruhut Sitompul from the leadership board last week. Ruhut had led members in calling for Anas to resign, saying such a move will help lift the party's fortunes, a claim others deem questionable.

Yudhoyono has publicly stayed above the fray, calling for members to wait for the law to take its course. "We have to be honest that we have many shortcomings and failings," he said at the party meeting. "But these don't just affect the Democrat Party. Other political parties around for decades are not free from wrongs either."

Political scientist Ari Dwipayana from Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta says that with elections for Parliament just 15 months away and aspiring legislators clamoring to be on shortlists, a rise in intra-party conflict is inevitable.

But given how the scandals affecting party members have pushed political rivals Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar ahead of the Democrats' sliding opinion poll numbers, he feels party elders are consciously avoiding open conflict to stem a further dip.

"This is all the more necessary as unlike the PDI-P or Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), they are far behind in mobilizing support on the ground," he said. "They have been helped by the party's link with government, but that is now not so advantageous."

Observers, however, say the advantage of incumbency cannot be underestimated. Burhanuddin Muhtadi of the Jakarta State Islamic University noted that although Yudhoyono cannot run again by law, he will still be president during the 2014 elections, and can time populist policies in the lead up to voting.

Dwipayana added that the government is already starting to trumpet its achievements in alleviating poverty and improving the welfare of Indonesians, and publicizing its plans to do more on this front for the coming year.

Yudhoyono has yet to name a successor, and indications are that he is likely to wait till the later half of next year, at the earliest.

But possible nominees include Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Djoko Suyanto, a former armed forces chief, as well as current army chief of staff Pramono Edhie Wibowo, who is Yudhoyono's brother-in-law. If it helps, neither is a party member at present.