Pitan Daslani – The temperature in Indonesia's political theater will soar next year as potential presidential candidates and political parties intensify efforts to boost their images ahead of 2014 legislative elections.

Even this passing year has seen a rapid increase in the tempo of political machines pushing their candidates for the country's top position.

The year 2012 has seen an intense battle of interests and strategies regarding the requirement for proposing presidential candidates. Big parties insist that according to Law No. 42/2008, only a party that can command 20 percent of parliamentary seats or 25 percent of the popular vote may propose a presidential pair. Other parties insist that the barrier should be lowered to 3.5 percent – the threshold for a political party to have seats in the House of Representatives – to allow alternative candidates to join the race.

A judicial review has been filed with the Constitutional Court by activists of smaller parties, but the court will not change the law, because it does not have the authority to do so. All it can do is retain the norm or ask the House to modify it – a proposition that will bow to the wishes of the big parties.

Legally speaking, it is true that political parties or coalitions that win 20 percent of parliamentary seats are allowed to propose presidential candidates. However, this mechanism denies potential candidates from outside of political parties the opportunity to compete in an election.

This also means that for the 2014 election, only such parties as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar Party and possibly the ruling Democratic Party have a chance to propose presidential candidates – if each of them can win 25 percent of the vote in the legislative election.

The ruling party commanded only 20.81 percent of the vote in the 2009 election, so raising the bar to 25 percent means even the big parties will need to set up coalitions.

Smaller parties will have no choice but to form coalitions to meet the 20 percent to 25 percent requirement in order to be able to field their own candidates.

So legally speaking, in talking about presidential candidates for 2014, one needs to first of all predict which parties will win 25 percent of the popular vote in the April 2014 legislative election, and decide which ones are likely to form coalitions.

Since the goal is to grab 25 percent of the vote in the legislative election, political parties must rely heavily on the popularity of public figures. This is why the entertainment industry's celebrities are "selling" themselves well these days. This is also the reason why public figures' image-polishing campaigns are so common.

Due to the requirement, analysts believe that the next presidential contest will most likely be a political battlefield involving a maximum of five candidates.

One of these candidates will come from the ruling Democratic Party (provided the party can remove all its corrupt cadres with enough time left over to rehabilitate its image). This candidate will not come from inside the party because none of the party's cadres is qualified enough to join the race – which is the reason the party will conduct a convention next year for "outsiders" or popular non-members to step in.

The second candidate might come from the PDI-P, whose chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri is still interested in joining the race after losing three times. The PDI-P's most popular and capable candidate today, after Megawati, is Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, who could be a powerful magnet.

The third candidate might be Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of the Golkar Party, who became the first politician to announce his candidacy this year.

The PDI-P and Golkar can reach that magic level if each of them can command 20 percent of parliamentary seats, or through coalitions with other parties.

The fourth candidate will be proposed by a coalition of political parties to be spearheaded by the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), whose chairman, Prabowo Subianto, has ranked high in opinion polls throughout this year.

The fifth candidate will be proposed by another coalition of political parties that will field popular public figures that do not have a political party of their own, or whose electoral support is insufficient to carry a candidate forward.

Such public figures as House of Regional Representatives Chairman Irman Gusman, former Vice President Jusuf Kalla, and Sri Mulyani Indrawati, managing director of the World Bank, are likely to be recruited for their perceived above-average leadership, capability and statesmanship, analysts said.

Retired General Wiranto, who leads the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), seems to be the right man in the wrong time and at the wrong place. He had two exclusive opportunities during Suharto's and Habibie's terms to replace them officially but he refused to do so and is now facing a hard time competing against more popular candidates.

A big mystery surrounding the ruling party is whether it will be able to regain the people's trust after its image and reputation sustained a substantial amount of damage by the corrupt behavior of its many members.

Amid the need to rehabilitate its image, the ruling party will surely need people with integrity and good track records to be its remedial candidates. Earlier this year, some names were believed to fit the bill – including Irman, State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan, and chairman of National Economic Commission Chairul Tanjung.

Another name that was getting the full support of the National Awakening Party (PKB) until recently was Mahfud M.D., chairman of the Constitutional Court. The PKB became splintered after members in the party backed dangdut singer Rhoma Irama as their candidate.

This scenario could fan religious discrimination and social disharmony. This also means that Mahfud is losing support from his own political base. Worse, his chairmanship of the court will expire by the end of March 2013. That will reduce his popularity a great deal.

Unlike legislative elections, where voters opt for political parties' best members to occupy the legislature, the presidential election in July 2014 is an entirely different contest in which personal charm, a track record, integrity, leadership and a high level of nationwide acceptance will be the determining factors.

Apart from that, there is now a public perception that the next president must come from the younger generation, meaning that the candidate must not be older than 54, because 55 is the retirement age.

The main reason for that is that the largest segment of 2014 voters will be made up of young people who prefer to associate themselves with a national leader who is not too far removed from their own generation.

Aggressive image-building maneuvers by presidential hopefuls have become synonymous with a thirst for power in the domestic political theater over the past year.

Prabowo and Bakrie have dominated the undeclared campaign through television. Irman is mesmerizing university campuses across the country, while Jusuf is making use of social occasions to promote his profile. Mahfud's head is full of striking ideas but some of his statements have been controversial.

After becoming a media darling for several months because of his eccentric maneuvers, Dahlan is now toning it down despite harboring the ambition to be on a ticket for 2014.

Surya Paloh, meanwhile, is slowly rising with his National Democrat (NasDem) Party, hoping to control one-fourth of parliamentary seats. Swing and new voters will probably find this party a good alternative in April but probably not in July 2014.

Polling agencies, meanwhile, have been very active in forming and influencing public opinion toward the presidential election, but the most important issue has been left untouched: What kind of a nation will Indonesia be in the 5-10 years, starting in 2014, and what kind of a national leader should be given the mandate to head the government and state?

What are the challenges the nation will face, and what are the solutions? Political parties and presidential candidates must provide the right answers, and the one that can give us the best answer and solution should be the one most suitable to become Indonesia's next president.

Also, given that Indonesia is playing an increasingly important role in international politics, what kind of a national leader should be installed to promote the nation's image on the global stage? He or she must be a visionary leader that can correctly position the nation as a competitive player in the global community of nations.

Do the potential candidates meet these requirements? Polling agencies that are monopolizing the public opinion-forming game have not taken these issues into consideration. They only rely on the popularity of the candidates, as if fame is what makes a person presidential.