Pitan Daslani – How many candidates will meet all of the requirements for the 2014 presidential election? This is the key question as public figures start to think about their bids for the top leadership position and possible barriers in their way.

According to the Constitution, a presidential candidate can only be proposed by a political party that wins 25 percent of votes in a legislative election or by a coalition of parties that controls 20 percent of the parliamentary seats.

That is already a huge barrier for many political parties and also prevents independent or alternative candidates from participating in the presidential election. As a result, only big parties will be allowed to nominate candidates and this is neither fair nor conducive to the spirit of democracy, which should advocate good political education, including equal opportunities and civil justice.

Nevertheless, in recent months, legislators have started talking about the need to create a more fair presidential election system that would allow more candidates from different backgrounds to participate.

But there are big barriers to making this a reality, the biggest one being that the big political parties that control the legislature prefer to promote their own candidates. And to continue their candidates' success they will shoot down laws that would allow more candidates to run.

Setting priorities

Originally, the presidential election law was to be reviewed in October, but as of this week, indications are that the legislature may postpone its deliberations until the middle of next year.

Before that, lawmakers will work to revise laws on the status and functions of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the House of Representatives and the House of Regional Representatives (DPD). Given that the presidential election law needs to be revised one year before the election date, lawmakers will have to complete the work by June of next year. One of three scenarios will likely emerge.

First, parties represented in the legislature will agree that the presidential election threshold be lowered to under 15 percent of the votes. That would increase the number of opposition forces within and outside the legislature.

Second, the parties will allow the barrier to be lowered to 3.5 percent, which would result in a flood of presidential candidates. This scenario is unlikely unless there is very strong pressure from a number of wide-ranging organizations and the media. If the 3.5 percent threshold is approved, the legislature will be too fragmented. Not surprisingly, a number of alternative candidates are in favor of this scenario.

The third scenario is that lawmakers agree to a middle-ground number of about 7 percent to 8 percent and this will encourage more coalitions to emerge.

Forging ahead

Despite the fact that the law is still to be debated, a number of public figures have recently stepped up their indirect campaign activities in many ways. Though they have not openly announced their candidacies, the public perception is clear that these politicians' eyes are fixed on the presidential palace.

Former Coordinating Minister for the Economy Rizal Ramli last week received strong backing from senior Muslim clerics who want him to replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2014. They believe that Ramli is the right candidate because of his decisiveness, strong leadership and experience. He is largely believed to be a tough but visionary public figure who can elevate the nation's welfare and dignity. Many people recognize him as a leader who cannot be "bought" due to his integrity. US-educated Ramli is also a strong advocate of pluralism and is well respected in many academic and intellectual communities.

Irman Gusman, the DPD chairman, is another shining star. On Wednesday, Irman was invited to deliver a keynote speech to a gathering of 1,500 people in Surabaya, East Java, organized by the Communication Forum for Children of Retired Police and Military Officers (FKPPI).

Irman talked about the need to find "a visionary leader who can protect national unity, territorial integrity, pluralism and social cohesion in the context of a globalized world." He added that for Indonesia to move forward, the country will need to rely more on its brain power than on its natural resources, and that FKPPI must "champion this trend by acting as the locomotive for change."

What is more important is not what Irman said, but why he was invited to speak at the event in the first place. He addressed an audience that included the armed forces' family members despite not having a military background himself.

Two things can perhaps help explain Irman's presence there. First, the supreme adviser of FKPPI is Yudhoyono, who happens to be the leader of the Democratic Party. Second, the founder of FKPPI is Surya Paloh, who is also the founder of the National Democratic Party (NasDem).

Irman began his speech by saying that he was "born from the political womb of the armed forces of Indonesia," a statement that drew loud cheers from FKPPI delegates who had come from all over Indonesia. It was the armed forces that had supported him throughout his career until he reached his current position.

Could this be an early sign that NasDem and the Democratic Party, together with the armed forces, might come together some day to propose Irman as their candidate? And don't forget that the neither party have candidates on the same level of Irman in terms of reputation and acceptability. Time will tell.

Another interesting development that took place last week was a gathering of senior politicians at the Puri Denpasar hotel in South Jakarta at the invitation of former Justice and Human Rights Minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra, who is also eyeing the presidency.

The high-profile public figures who attended the meeting garnered a lot of attention, including the chairman of Golkar Party's Supreme Advisory Council, Akbar Tandjung.

Akbar's presence did not surprise me until Wednesday morning, when he appeared in a national television interview to declare very clearly that even though Golkar had nominated its chairman Aburizal Bakrie as presidential candidate, the nomination was not final. To me this seemed to say that if the party decides that Bakrie can't win the election, it will find a better and more acceptable candidate.

Never has Akbar made such a blunt remark on Bakrie's chances. His television appearance created the impression that Golkar's top leadership is not solid and will have problems staying united in this upcoming election.

Other notable guests at the Puri Denpasar meeting included former Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso and former chairman of the Constitutional Court Jimly Asshiddiqie. Will they be supporting Yusril for the next presidential election?

Adding another layer to the meeting, Sutiyoso's 10-year track record of Jakarta leadership is being used by people who believe he would make a good presidential candidate.

With all of these personalities and possible candidates, it's not hard to wonder if there will be a situation in which the next president will not be the leader of a political party, but a public figure from outside who is backed by a coalition of political parties.

If that is possible, then outside candidates such as Rizal Ramli, Irman Gusman and Yusril could be the right people to consider. All of them have proven their leadership ability, professionalism and credible track records.