Ezra Sihite – From defending the rising political star of Solo Mayor Joko Widodo for next month's Jakarta gubernatorial election to easing the Rohingya's plight in Myanmar, former Vice President Jusuf Kalla has been making headlines in the last several weeks.
Many politicians praised the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) chief as a strong presidential candidate as analysts heralded the beginning of political fight for the country's top job with the election less than two years away.
Several political parties already said they had considered backing Kalla as their presidential candidate, while others lauded him as a skillful politician for jumping on Joko's bandwagon.
Kalla, a businessman from Bugis, South Sulawesi, could become popular among Javanese voters, the majority of the Indonesian population. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was forced to acknowledge Kalla's role in mediating conflicts as he personally asked his former vice president to become the country's special envoy to help solve the Rohingya issue.
The up-and-coming National Democrat Party (Nasdem) has announced that Kalla is one of the figures it is considering as a presidential candidate. "Kalla is a person to consider," Nasdem chairman Patrice Rio Capella said on Thursday.
Previously, the United Development Party (PPP) also aired support for the former Golkar Party chairman to run for the country's top job. Kalla himself has repeatedly stated that he is ready to run.
However, rising support for Kalla could threaten the chances of current Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie, who has already been picked as that party's candidate. Analysts have said that Kalla's decision to run will divide Golkar and its supporters.
Indra J. Piliang, the chairman of Golkar's research and development division, has admitted that Kalla has a bigger stronghold in eastern Indonesia, compared to Aburizal.
Golkar deputy secretary general Nurul Arifin and spokesman Tantowi Yahya have expressed how proud they are of their former chairman. "Aburizal's chances, which are already slim, will be further hit if Kalla runs," said Siti Zuhro, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
Several analysts agreed, however, that no matter how popular Kalla was, the front-runner would be former general Prabowo Subianto, the founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).
In most surveys taken during the last several months, Prabowo topped Kalla and other figures, including former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, the chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Many said Prabowo boosted his popularity when he persuaded Megawati to support Joko, known as Jokowi, in the Jakarta gubernatorial election. "If Jokowi wins Jakarta's top job, Prabowo will feel that he can show the country that he controls the capital," said Fachry Ali, another analyst from LIPI.
The main problem for Prabowo is to find major political parties to support him because the law states that only a party or a coalition of parties with 20 percent of the vote in the legislative election can nominate a presidential candidate.
He has been trying to convince Megawati and the PDI-P, or Yudhoyono and his Democratic Party, to support him. He's still waiting, however, despite a recent meeting with Yudhoyono and a coalition with the PDI-P to support Jokowi.
"Yudhoyono will make sure that he only supports the winning candidate, and Prabowo has not convinced him yet," said Aleksius Jemadu, the dean of the Pelita Harapan University's School of Social and Political Sciences. "Prabowo will compete with Aburizal and Golkar to attract Yudhoyono's support."
Fachry and Aleksius agree that the mystery for 2014 is if Megawati will run. "If Megawati runs or nominates someone else, then it will be a game-changer as it can dash Prabowo's hopes," Aleksius said.
Fachry said that if Jokowi won the Jakarta gubernatorial election, then the PDI-P had no choice but to pick him as its presidential candidate for 2014. "All indicators suggest that Jokowi can win the country's top job," he said.