Markus Junianto Sihaloho – The Lapindo mudflow disaster is widely seen as an Achilles' heel that could destroy Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie's chances for presidency. But what others see as a threat for Golkar might just turn into an opportunity.

The mudflow, which began in May 2006, was widely attributed to the blowout of a natural gas well owned by Lapindo Brantas, a Bakrie Group affiliate. Aburizal at the time was the coordinating minister for people's welfare.

The incident has destroyed hundreds of homes, swamped 720 hectares of land and displaced thousands of people in Sidoarjo, East Java.

Then there's the protracted compensation process, which many argue violates a presidential instruction. The compensation delay led to Aburizal, who announced his bid for presidency on July 1, faltering in surveys of public support.

Lalu Mara Satriawangsa, a Bakrie family spokesman and deputy secretary general of Golkar, said that the Bakries had set aside a huge sum of money for the compensation but could not say when the money will be disbursed to the victims.

"We will settle [all compensation] according to the Bakrie family's capability. Yes, there has been delay, but we have to appreciate what the Bakries have done [for the victims]," he said.

Public Works Minister Djoko Kirmanto, who also has a role with the Sidoarjo Mudflow Mitigation Agency, said in June that Lapindo has only paid Rp 2.9 trillion ($307 million) in compensation out of the Rp 3.8 trillion it was ordered to pay. "We will ask [Lapindo] to pay what they owe," the minister said.

Lalu confirmed that Aburizal had set aside the remaining Rp 900 billion compensation. With the presidential election less than two years away, it has been speculated that Aburizal will wait until just before the 2014 election to finalize the payment.

Finalizing the compensation, analysts predict, would sharply boost Aburizal's electoral prospects. Aburizal is currently trailing former president Megawati Sukarnoputri and retired general Prabowo Subianto in the popularity stakes.

Idrus Marham, secretary general of Golkar Party, said in an interview in January that completing the payment obligations would make Aburizal look like a hero.

"It is extraordinary, as it is not [Aburizal's] responsibility," Idrus said. "The court of law said that it is a natural phenomenon. Aburizal is a great leader. [The Lapindo mudflow] would only be positive energy."

Lalu denied that the compensation delay was related to the 2014 presidential election but added that Bakrie had been generous for shouldering the compensation alone.

Energy Mega, owned by the family of tycoon Arifin Panigoro, owned 32 percent of Lapindo and another 18 percent was owned by Australian company Santos.