Karlis Salna – Former guerilla commander Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres has warned ahead of East Timor's upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections that the young country must resist returning to the violence of its recent past.
East Timor will mark 10 years since independence when it holds just its second free presidential election on March 17, in the wake of near-civil war in 2006 and further unrest ahead of the 2007 polls.
While there are 12 candidates for president, it is increasingly looking like a three-horse race between Guterres, the incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta and Taur Matan Ruak, who resigned last year as East Timor's armed forces chief.
However, in a crucial move, and one very damaging to Ramos-Horta's prospects of being returned to office, the National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party (CNRT) of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has thrown its support behind Ruak, more affectionately known as TMR.
Their support of Ramos-Horta in 2007 was seen as key to his victory. Some observers have suggested that CNRT's support for TMR is more about heading off Guterres, and thus delivering Gusmao another term as prime minister.
Guterres, who narrowly lost in the 2007 presidential race to Ramos-Horta, represents Fretilin, the party synonymous with the resistance movement during Indonesia's 24-year occupation of East Timor. But he maintains that Fretilin, despite its obvious links to the resistance movement, is now a different beast.
"I and my party are committed to non-violence and we've demonstrated that from the beginning of this campaign," he told AAP in Dili in his first interview since launching his latest tilt at the presidency.
But he conceded 2012 looms as a crucial test for the country, acknowledging both the presidential poll and parliamentary elections to be held in mid-June will be closely watched across the region and the world.
"People still have fresh in their minds what happened in 2006/2007, the crisis. And they fear that occurring again.
"But that occurred in another context. Now there is no Reinado," he added, referring to the rebel army major who was regarded as a key player in the violence that erupted in East Timor in 2006. "The situation today is totally different."
Guterres, who has also remodelled himself and is about to earn a law degree, said it was his firm belief that it was the "aspiration of all of the people of Timor-Leste that we have a stable and peaceful Timor-Leste".
Such an outcome, he said, was crucial for the future development of the country. "Naturally, nobody wants to invest in a place that's unstable, where there is conflict."
East Timor's economy grew on average by 9.9 per cent between 2007 and 2010, but that success is overwhelmingly driven by oil revenues. A petroleum fund set up to manage oil revenues was as of September last year valued at more than $8 billion.
But the country remains plagued by problems such as a low skills base and weak public governance, a disaffected youth and an unemployment rate of more than 20 per cent.
The presidential poll is also seen as a key indicator in terms of the outcome of the June parliamentary elections, which will basically be a contest between CNRT and Fretilin.
"We're still building a state, we're still strengthening a state, but we also have to provide for the basic needs and demands of our people," Guterres said. In this regard, he added, Prime Minister Gusmao's government had failed.
"In five years of government, nearly $5 billion has been spent for a small country of just over 1.2 million people. But the economy is not productive and the lives of the people in every aspect are turning more difficult."
He said that for the most part there had been no improvement in infrastructure. "There is now less access to water and sanitation; public health, education and schools are all going backwards." "This signifies failure."