Anita Rachman & Arientha Primanita – The Democrats' rise to power over the past 10 years was nothing short of meteoric, but with the ruling party facing the biggest crisis of its existence and heading toward a presidential election without a clear nominee, its future is suddenly in question.
At a gathering on Thursday night in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta, to mark the belated 10th anniversary of the party that has ruled for the past seven years, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono rallied his troops, urging them to work better, listen to the people and compete fairly.
"Dedication to the nation and state for 10 years is nothing. There is still much that we can do," he said. "We must be honest and admit that we still have a lot of shortcomings and weaknesses."
The Democratic Party was founded on Sept. 9, 2001, and found a quick path to the top. It contested the 2004 general elections and secured 7 percent of the vote, fifth best among all the parties and good enough for 57 seats in the House of Representatives. That same year the Democrats scored a major win: Their founder was elected president.
The party spent the next five years growing and expanding. In the 2009 elections, Yudhoyono was re-elected in just one round with 62 percent of the 19 million votes cast. The ruling party also managed to secure 148 seats in the House, making it the country's biggest party, ahead of the Golkar Party and the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Today, however, political analysts and observers are in almost universal agreement that the party is facing its biggest test.
Though Yudhoyono was elected on an anticorruption platform, his party is now at the center of a massive graft scandal involving former Democratic treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin. Surveys have shown the scandal has had a negative impact on the president and the party's popularity.
Ari Dwipayana, a political analyst at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, says the Democrats will likely suffer a continued decline in the next few years.
The real challenge now, he said, is for the party to put the scandal behind it and perform. "It's the common problem, that the party doesn't really [work for the] grassroots," hesaid.
Speaking at the gathering on Thursday, party chairman Anas Urbaningrum was eager to trumpet what he said were some of the party's achievements. He said that during Yudhoyono's administration, Indonesia had enjoyed a growing economy, falls in poverty and unemployment, better law enforcement and improved social welfare.
The party's deputy secretary general, Saan Mustofa, told the Jakarta Globe on Friday that the "international community acknowledges our government's successes."
Anas said critics who thought Yudhoyono's government had failed were politically myopic and not objective. The PDI-P's Eva Kusuma Sundari said that in that case many Indonesians, including herself, were myopic.
"I have the same notion as the people [that there have been no significant improvements]. Only investors praise our government, because they have the intention to exploit [the nation]," the opposition lawmaker said.
She added that she would measure development based on statistics such as the UN Human Development Index, poverty index and import dependence. "Anas doesn't understand the reality of the people," she said.
Indria Samego, a political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), agreed that the Democrats' popularity and power would likely decline in the years ahead. But he said this would be due more to the absence of Yudhoyono in the 2014 presidential race than anything else.
"Corruption scandals do not really [affect people's preferences]. Every party is involved in at least one [scandal]. People will still look at the candidates," he said. "I think Golkar will take the lead in the next election."
But the Democrats seem confident as they look ahead. Deputy chairman Max Sopacua told the Globe that party members would work harder and show their commitment to the people. He said they would heed Yudhoyono's instruction to improve their performance and listen to the people.
"Our members will work harder and leave law enforcement [in corruption cases] to the law enforcers," he said, adding that he was optimistic about the future of the party.
Only time will tell, Eva said, but added she and her party were ready for the competition. "I used to be surprised, but not amazed, by the victories of the Democrats," she said. "But corruption scandals won't affect the people's preferences. It's money politics and pragmatism that people are concerned about."