Camelia Pasandaran – A third major survey in three weeks has given further credence to talk of a decline in the popularity of the president and his Democratic Party, with the Golkar Party and its chairman again emerging as the main beneficiary.
The results of the survey by the Reform Institute, released on Tuesday, showed that Golkar was the party of choice for 18.61 percent of the 2,010 respondents polled, with the Democrats coming in second at 14.13 percent.
The results run counter to the Democrats' position as the biggest party in the House of Representatives. The party's decline sees it just 0.05 percent ahead of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Abdul Hamid, the director of development at the Reform Institute, said only 17 percent of those polled who voted for the Democrats in the 2009 elections were satisfied with the party's performance, while the rest said they were disappointed.
"The voters cited as their reason the lack of meaningful action by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to address problems such as [graft suspect and former party treasurer] Muhammad Nazaruddin and other corruption cases," he said.
The results of the survey, conducted nationwide from Sept. 12-24, were announced two days after a similar poll from the Jaringan Suara Indonesia (Indonesian Voice Network) put the president's approval rating at 53 percent, down from the Indonesian Survey Institute's figures of 70 percent in January 2010 and 62 percent in October last year.
Polling done by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) put the president's approval rating at 57 percent in January of this year, 47 percent in June and 38 percent this month.
Hamid said the survey also highlighted Aburizal Bakrie as the preferred presidential candidate in 30 of 33 provinces.
"He runs massive programs everywhere and his political vehicle, Golkar, is also at the top in terms of popularity because so many people are disappointed with the Democrats," he said.
Of the 25 potential presidential candidates listed in the poll, Aburizal came out on top with 13.58 percent, followed by Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) with 8.46 percent and former vice president and Golkar stalwart Jusuf Kalla with 7.06 percent.
Rounding out the top five were legislator Hidayat Nur Wahid from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 5.17 percent and Ani Yudhoyono, the first lady, with 4.13 percent.
Hamid said the survey also indicated Prabowo would make the best vice presidential candidate.
"Given the fact that his party probably won't be among the top three in the 2014 legislative elections, he won't be able to get the presidential nomination anyway," he said. "The presidential candidates will likely be from the three top parties: Golkar, PDI-P and the Democratic Party. The three next biggest will have to fight it out for a vice presidential seat."
Notably absent from the list of potential candidates was former president and PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri. Hamid said that was because she tended to polarize voters, so if the presidential election went to a runoff between her and another candidate, she would lose.
He added that it was likely the presidential election would have to go to a second round.
Taufik Kiemas, Megawati's husband, argued on Monday against his wife running again, instead calling for younger politicians to stand. Their daughter, Puan Maharani, said she was willing to take up the mantle.
However, Hamid said younger politicians were not as popular with respondents as more established ones. Puan got 3.78 percent approval in the survey, while Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum, also considered a younger-generation leader, received 3.33 percent.