Anita Rachman – - Analysts and opposition members have called the Democratic Party's bluff on a threatened shake-up of the coalition, saying the grouping is likely to hold together until the 2014 elections.

After the Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) succeeded in pushing through a tax inquiry proposal on Tuesday night against the wishes of the Democrats, the ruling party has publicly threatened to turn the coalition upsidedown.

But Pramono Anung of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) said these were just "empty threats."

"President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will still need Golkar," he said. "Unless something extraordinary happens, I think the [current] position [in the coalition] will remain the same until 2014."

Yunarto Wijaya, a political analyst with Charta Politika said a possible shake-up of the coalition was more likely to fall upon the PKS, as the government can afford to lose the party, which holds just 57 seats. Golkar, the second-largest party in the House of Representatives with a total of 106 seats, is seen as safe.

The Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) has been suggested as a possible replacement for the PKS in the coalition, as the party supported the Democrats' rejection of the tax inquiry while the two rebellious coalition members pushed it forward.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), said that removing both the Golkar Party and the PKS and bringing Gerindra into the coalition would not benefit the Democrats because it would only secure the coalition with 51 percent seats in the House.

He said the only way the Democrats could safely remove the two disloyal parties was if it could persuade the PDI-P to join the coalition. "But then the Democrats would be facing a huge barrier, unless they could win Megawati [Sukarnoputri's approval]," he said, referring to the PDI-P founder.

Echoing Burhanuddin, Yunarto said the PDI-P was the only party that had comparable strength to Golkar. Megawati, however, has been adamant about her party remaining in opposition to the government, partly due to concerns that the party would lose support from its grassroots voters if it decided to join the coalition.

Finding a middle way, such as recruiting a PDI-P member into the cabinet without officially joining the government coalition, is an option, but the move would still be risky for the president as the PDI-P's support was not guaranteed, Yunarto said.

Puan Maharani, Megawati's daughter and a senior PDI-P official, previously stated that although the party would never join the government coalition, it was open to the possibility of accepting offers of ministerial posts in the cabinet. Pramono, however, said the final decision lies with Megawati, despite Puan's statements.

Both Yunarto and Burhanuddin said the PKS should watch its back if the president moves ahead with the much rumored cabinet reshuffle, as the party does not have much leverage.

Yunarto predicted that there was a bigger chance that the government would offer Gerindra a cabinet seat than put more effort in trying to sway the PDI-P.

But Gerindra deputy chairman Fadli Zon said the party's decision to go along with the Democrats in the vote was not a transactional one. He said Gerindra's sole reason for opposing the proposal was because the party does not want to be used for the interests of other political parties.

"There have no been talks on a coalition or a cabinet seat with the Democrats," he said. "The offers you've heard about are just rumors."