Armando Siahaan, Jakarta – The Golkar Party is shaping up to be an increasing threat to the Democratic Party in the 2014 elections, a survey shows.

The survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle, with 1,000 respondents, shows the two parties are the only ones that have seen their electoral strength grow since last year's elections.

The Democrats, whose popularity is essentially inseparable from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, lead with 26 percent support, 5 points more than it received at the polls.

But Golkar, under the leadership of the controversial Aburizal Bakrie, has seen its popularity rise to 17.3 percent, compared with 14.45 percent last year.

Megawati Sukarnoputri's opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is still third, on 13.6 percent, about one point less than last year.

Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) senior researcher Barkah Pattimahu said the Democrats needed to keep an eye on Golkar. "The public is beginning to believe that the government's performance is poor," Barkah said. "This will mean a decrease in support for the Democrats."

Conversely, Barkah said there were reasons to believe that Golkar had the ability to expand its strength. "Golkar has won at least 50 percent of the regional elections this year," Barkah said. "Regional leaders are a powerful instrument to gain support at regional level."

Golkar's political machinery and financial situation were much stronger than the Democrats and the PDI-P, he added. Golkar was in a strong strategic position, being part of the ruling coalition but also being free to criticize the government.

Aburizal said last week that the party would not shy away from speaking out if it believed the government were not siding with the people. Golkar also opposed the Democrats during the Bank Century scandal by declaring the state bailout illegal.

"Ideally, when the government is performing poorly, the support will go to the opposition party [PDI-P], but that's not the case here," Barkah said, referring to the fact that support for the party had declined.

But the survey's result are in contrast with one by the LSI last month that showed the PDI-P's support rising 6 points in the last six months, while Golkar was down 3 points. It concluded that Golkar's decline was primarily due to its status as a coalition partner.

Barkah predicted Golkar would flourish in 2014 because Aburizal would move to lift its fortunes, while time would be up for Yudhoyono and Megawati.

But other analysts believe Aburizal's notoriety from issues which as the Lapindo mudflow and alleged tax evasion could hurt in 2014.

The LSI survey also tackled the issue of the number of political parties in the House. Some 73.8 percent of respondents said they believed there were too many. About 60 percent said there should be only five parties, down from nine currently.

"There is great expectation from the public that in the upcoming election the number of political parties in the House will be decreased," Barkah said.