Armando Siahaan – Attempts by smaller parties to form confederations in an effort to consolidate power ahead of the 2014 general elections could be quashed by the larger parties that dominate the House of Representatives, a political analyst said on Tuesday.
The National Mandate Party (PAN) recently said confederations would be one way for smaller parties to meet the legislative threshold, which is expected to be doubled to 5 percent for the 2014 polls. The threshold is the number of votes a party must secure to receive a seat in the House.
However, the laws on political parties and elections do not recognize confederations, and would have to be amended through the House, which would require a consensus from all parties.
"The idea of a PAN-backed confederation would be attacked from all sides, even by its coalition partners," said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, an analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).
He said the heads of three of the country's four largest parties – the ruling Democratic Party, Golkar and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) – had all indicated their disapproval of the idea.
Burhanuddin said confederations would be a threat to the three parties, as well as the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), by watering down their mandates.
The idea behind forming a confederation is to make use of the votes garnered by smaller parties that fail to meet the legislative threshold and thus are deprived of a seat in the House. Such parties accounted for 20 percent of the vote in the 2009 elections.
Burhanuddin pointed out that if PAN, which won 6 percent of the vote in 2009, managed to engage just 10 percent of those votes, it could transform into a major party with significant power in the House. "That's why the big parties aren't comfortable with the idea," he said.
Moreover, Burhanuddin said, consolidating the votes of parties failing to meet the legislative threshold would mean fewer extra seats for the major parties. Under the current system, those votes are distributed proportionately among the parties that do meet the threshold. "They don't want to lose those free seats," he said.
PAN's Bima Arya Sugiarto said his party knew the idea would receive a hostile reception, thus it was working "to create a more comprehensive understanding." "The proposed system is meant for all parties, and not limited to specific ones," Bima said.
PAN is currently promoting the idea to all parties in the country, he said, including the Democrats and Golkar. "Even a major party would be happy to gain more votes," Bima said.
He also said the system could help strengthen the presidency, pointing out that with fewer parties in the House, there would be less jostling over nominating presidential candidates, and thus a better chance for the most qualified candidates to stand.
However, Burhanuddin said larger parties preferred gobbling up smaller groups as a way of expanding their voter base, citing Golkar's recent talks with the Indonesian Muslim Brotherhood (Parmusi) and the Reform Star Party (PBR).
He said this differed from a confederation in that the smaller party would be assimilated into the larger one, while membership in a confederation would allow it to retain its political identity.