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Mega problems ahead for PDI-P without new leader - Analysts

Source
Jakarta Globe - April 9, 2010

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle faces a perilous road ahead after voting to stick with Megawati Sukarnoputri as chairwoman, political analysts warn.

Political lecturer Arbi Sanit, from the University of Indonesia, said on Friday that the party had learned nothing from the failure of Megawati's previous five-year term.

As expected, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) congress in Bali on Thursday unanimously elected Megawati to lead the party until 2015. She has been at the helm since the party's inception in 1998.

"We're all living in an entirely different political landscape now," Arbi said. "Under Suharto's administration, she may have won people's hearts because people could see the repression perpetuated by Suharto's New Order regime in her persona. But that was the past. This is not today's political setting."

Arbi said the future would be slightly brighter if the party's top position had been passed on to former secretary general Pramono Anung, now deputy speaker of the House of Representatives. "With Pramono, I think the party would move forward faster than with Megawati," he said.

Arbi said if the party's elite did not begin adapting to the political landscape, their followers would abandon them. He said even though the new party lineup was an attempt at succession, the young party executives would listen only to Megawati.

"Megawati is still seen as the party itself. But she does not have the capacity to lead and bring the party toward a promising future, like getting more followers or expanding its political enclaves," Arbi said.

Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), disagreed, saying that Megawati was the only choice the party had because only she was "consistent and firm about staying out of the government and being a balancing power."

He said the new lineup served the need to rebuild the PDI-P as a people's party, pointing out the elected executives were all tried and tested.

Ikrar said Megawati had made a tactical move in choosing Tjahjo Kumolo as secretary general because he had been an effective politician when active in the Golkar Party.

"Tjahjo may not be born out of the PDI-P but Megawati must have seen his commitment to, and understanding of, Sukarno's ideology," Ikrar said,. He added that it was not Megawati but Sukarno who was considered the real "soul" of the party.

Ikrar said the 2014 presidential election would be the PDI-P's biggest test because if the party put forward Megawati as its candidate "it will be suicidal."

Abdul Gafur Sangadji, a political analyst at the University of Indonesia, said the 2009 presidential election confirmed Megawati was no longer a magnet for voters. He said the party had to come up with a new figure if it hoped to win the 2014 race.

"The problem with the PDI-P is that the party executives rely too much on the charisma of Megawati, for she is still seen as Sukarno's daughter, inheriting his blood and ideology," Abdul said.

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