Febriamy Hutapea & Anita Rachman – Wednesday's vote by lawmakers to seek a criminal investigation into the handling of the 2008 Bank Century bailout seems to have laid the groundwork for the end of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party-led ruling coalition, political analysts and Democrat officials said.

Hayono Isman, a member of the Democrats' advisory board, said the party was bitterly disappointed by the stance taken by "uncontrollable" coalition members, referring to the Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which had vigorously pushed for the investigation.

"We appreciate their decision. But now we expect a knightly act on their part," he said, "by stepping down from the coalition."

Democratic Party legislator Ruhut Sitompul said that although he accepted the parties' decisions, he was sure the Democrats would now get "nine more seats in the cabinet," hinting at a possible reshuffle.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst at the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), said on Wednesday that Golkar and the PKS would now be labeled as "thorns in the side" of the ruling coalition.

"The damage has been done. They [Golkar and PKS] did it," he said. He added that he would not be surprised if Yudhoyono went ahead with a cabinet reshuffle and gave prominent positions to more supportive parties.

But Burhanuddin also said that Golkar and the PKS would fare better than the opposition parties in the eye of the public because they stood firm on the issue even in the face of fierce lobbying on the part of the Democrats.

Cecep Effendy, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute, said that Wednesday's vote had underlined the depth of the rift that had developed in the ruling coalition, and had significantly undermined the role of the Democratic Party, which had positioned itself as the head of the coalition with the most seats in the House of Representatives.

"Golkar wanted to show its long history of power," he said. "They wanted to show how firm their stance could be after being disrespected by the Democrats."

The rocky relationship between Golkar and the Democrats was reflected in Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie's showdown with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati over a tax dispute involving Bakrie family companies.

Cecep, however, said Wednesday's events did not necessarily spell the demise of the coalition. "The coalition will continue until the end. Yudhoyono will forgive them and continue with this coalition," he said.

"His goal is that his last term portrays him as a successful leader so he is remembered in the annals of the country's history. Every party is building its image for its own interests. The coalition is filled with short-term goals."