Febriamy Hutapea & Ulma Haryanto – While the odds so far seem to be stacked against the Democrats after most of the factions in the House of Representatives declared indications of corruption and irregularities in the government bailout of Bank Century, the game isn't over yet.
On Tuesday, the House is scheduled to begin a two-day marathon plenary session to discuss the recommendations of the special committee that dedicated more than two months to investigating the legality of the bailout process, with responses from each party due the following day.
Only three parties – the ruling Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – declared in their final conclusions on Tuesday that the Rp 6.7 trillion ($716 million) bailout was necessary, adopting the justification provided by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Vice President Boediono, who was central bank governor at the time of the 2008 bailout.
They have both argued that rescuing the failed lender during the height of the global financial crisis was needed to prevent it from posing a systemic threat to the entire banking sector.
The six other parties found the bailout illegal. Four of the parties – including the Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which are both part of the ruling coalition – specifically named Boediono and Sri Mulyani as responsible for the bailout.
But the Democrats appear to be optimistic that things could still change over the next few days. "They [Boediono and Sri Mulyani] are policy makers, they are not wrong. I believe they will be safe," Democratic faction chairman Anas Urbaningrum said.
He declined to say how the party planned to influence other parties to get in line with its stance in securing the positions of Boediono and Mulyani, only saying no special lobbying had been prepared by Democrats.
Democrat lawmaker Benny Kabur Harman, who is a member of the House special committee, was similarly optimistic, saying that he believed some parties could still soften their views. "The viewpoint can be changed," he said.
The Democrats have some reason to be optimistic, according to analysts. "It will all depend on the days preceding March 2. There will be an intensification of lobbying at the highest levels, so we should expect some changes," political analyst Burhanuddin Muhtadi, from the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI), said on Friday.
But Siti Zuhro, a political observer from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said the outcome of the lobbying would not be easy to predict.
"We can no longer separate the ruling coalition from the opposition. The opposition collided and the coalition [members] are opposing each other," she said. "And those in the coalition who are opposing [the Democrats] are louder than the others." Burhanuddin, however, said that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had several options to "tame" Golkar and the PKS.
"He could approach PDI-P [the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle] and Gerindra [Great Indonesia Movement Party], or shuffle the cabinet, because he has nothing to lose right now." Even if the PKS and Golkar left the coalition, he said, Yudhoyono would only need Gerindra to achieve a majority.
PDI-P and Gerindra are both opposition parties but the Democratic camp has been seen approaching them over the past few weeks, as Golkar and PKS remained defiant over the bailout.
Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto has reportedly met with the president several times, with Gerindra secretary general Ahmad Muzani confirming at least one meeting.
Andi Arief, the president's special staff member for social affairs, has reportedly met House Deputy Speaker Pramono Anung and lawmaker Puan Maharani, both from the PDI-P.
In their final stances on the bailout, the PDI-P remained consistent in stating that Boediono and Sri Mulyani were responsible for the "illegal bailout," but Gerindra softened its tone a bit by not identifying responsible officials by name, only mentioning institutions and positions.
"Gerindra has distanced itself from Golkar," Burhanuddin said. "I think the Bank Century case is being used by the party to benefit itself and Prabowo."
But he added that the Democrats would not write off Golkar just yet. "Golkar, which has a history of never taking a firm stand on anything, will have its political and business interests heavily impacted if it withdraws from the coalition," he said. "If the Democrats remove them from the coalition, they would panic."
The massive business empire of Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie is seen as heavily reliant on government contracts and friendly financial regulators.
In the days following the release of the final conclusions, Bakrie seemed to be "qualifying" his party's stance. On Wednesday, he insisted that Golkar had never demanded Boediono's impeachment.
"At the time of the Century case, Boediono was Bank Indonesia governor, not vice president. So there's no impeachment there," he reportedly said.
And on Thursday night, at a party event in Pekanbaru, Riau, Bakrie insisted that Golkar would remain in the president's coalition.
"Both Golkar and the PKS are trying to backstab one another; they are probably making deals with the president," Burhanuddin said. "Neither one of them wants to be the only one being the opposition in the coalition."