Febriamy Hutapea & Markus Junianto Sihaloho – With two factions from the ruling coalition officially naming Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati as responsible for the "illegal" bailout of Bank Century at the conclusion of the House of Representatives special committee investigation, political analysts predicted an even bumpier road ahead for the president's Democrats.
In reporting their final stances, the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) named the two as among those responsible, as had been expected.
Among the six parties in the ruling coalition, Golkar and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which have been aggressive throughout the probe, also named the pair. Golkar identified the two only by their initials.
The Democratic Party, along with three other coalition members – the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) – did not name any officials responsible for the bailout. The PPP only named institutions.
The opposition Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) did not identify officials by name but mentioned institutions and positions. Seven of the parties, however, said that there were indications of corruption and illegalities in the bailout.
Saldi Isra, a state administrative expert from Andalas University in Padang, said the committee had no choice but to name those responsible for the bailout. Otherwise, "it means that they are trying to hide the facts," he said.
The decision, however, meant more challenges ahead for the increasingly uncertain Democrat-led ruling coalition, according to analyst Burhanuddin Muhtadi, of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), who said the conclusions opened the way for the impeachment of the vice president.
If the committee's recommendations are approved by the House's plenary on March 2, he said, then some lawmakers could ask for the "right of opinion expression" to impeach Boediono.
"So it now depends on the Democrats and their coalition. If they're solid enough, the impeachment [issue] could be tackled in the plenary session," he said. "If it fails, then Boediono's impeachment is near and it could be a new 'wild card'?" against President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
The four parties that did not name names have a combined 260 seats in the House, or less than half of the total 560 lawmakers who will vote next week.
Another possible scenario is the complete breakdown of the coalition. Burhanuddin said political attacks between Democrats and the rest of the coalition, particularly PKS and Golkar, would become more intense in the coming days.
In response, the Democrats could break their coalition with Golkar and PKS, and begin to approach PDI-P and Gerindra to replace them. "Or the Democrats could approach one of them and dump the other, like approach Golkar and dump PKS," he said.
However, Cecep Effendi, a political observer from the Indonesian Institute, said that although the recommendations by coalition members differed from those of the Democrats, it did not automatically mean a coalition rift.
"As long as coalition parties do not suggest summoning Yudhoyono, it means that they still solidly support Yudhoyono," he said.