Febriamy Hutapea & Muninggar Saraswati – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party expressed guarded optimism on Wednesday that its coalition partners would change their final stances on the Bank Century bailout after the House of Representatives' special committee stopped short of alleging that bailout money had found its way into Yudhoyono's campaign coffers.
"I believe the coalition must have meaning. If not, what's the purpose of a coalition?" Democratic Party faction chairman Anas Urbaningrum said, just minutes after the parties delivered their verdicts.
However, he dismissed claims that the apparent softening of views on the bailout was a direct result of intensified lobbying by the Democrats in recent weeks. "We did not promise anything [to other parties]," Anas said.
The committee factions on Wednesday revealed their conclusions on the bailout money trail – which included that there were irregularities in the distribution of bailout funds – but the full House is not scheduled to reach a final conclusion until March 2.
Prior to that, the factions must deliver their conclusions on the legality of the bailout.
Seven of the nine political parties on the committee said in preliminary conclusions earlier this month that they believed the bailout was illegal, but a number of analysts and politicians have since said that those conclusions could change, putting pressure on the government.
Four of the nine parties are members of the government's coalition: the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).
There has been intensive lobbying over the past few days. A meeting of the leaders of all of the coalition parties at the house of PAN chairman Hatta Rajasa on Sunday night is widely thought to have been about the Century probe.
Aggressive lobbying on the part of the Democrats also included party officials reaching out to opposition parties the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra).
Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto met with Yudhoyono on Monday. Gerindra secretary general Ahmad Muzani confirmed the meeting but declined to elaborate. "I don't know [about the conversation]. But we will not change our position," he said.
On Tuesday, Andi Arief, the president's special staff member for social affairs, met House deputy speaker Pramono Anung and lawmaker Puan Maharani, both from the PDI-P. Both Andi and Pramono denied the meeting was linked to the Century case, saying only that it was a meeting between old friends.
Pramono also denied that Andi's visit was arranged to deliver an invitation from Yudhoyono to the PDI-P to join the coalition.
The Democrats' approaches to PDI-P and Gerindra have raised speculation that the party is trying to secure coalition replacements, given the rebelliousness of Golkar and the PKS.
The latter two parties are widely thought to be pushing to unseat Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati through the bailout probe.
If they manage to secure the votes of the PDI-P and Gerindra during the March 2 plenary session, when the final conclusions on the Century case will be made, the Democrats will have more than enough votes to offset those of Golkar and the PKS. Golkar has 107 seats and the PKS 57, while the PDI-P holds 94 seats and Gerindra 26 seats.
In any case, Charta Politika analyst Yunarto Widjaja said the public would be able to judge then whether the Century investigation was about anything more than political horse trading. "Today alone the parties have begun to show what the investigation is all about – nothing but a political game," Yunarto said.
Yunarto said the only institution people could count on to learn about the bailout money trail is the KPK – if the KPK is able to maintain its independence in the case.