Nivell Rayda – Analysts are predicting rising political tensions when the House of Representatives special committee investigating the Bank Century bailout presents its findings.

Two of the country's biggest political parties have already faced off over the issue, including threats of a cabinet reshuffle by members of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.

Arbi Sanit, a political observer from the University of Indonesia, said the House special committee appeared to have only produced more fuel for political bargaining, rather than any solid conclusions about the Rp 6.7 trillion ($710 million) bailout.

"Even now, the parties are busy making political deals. It shows that Yudhoyono's coalition is very fragile and not based on a common goal," he said.

Only one of the Democrats' five coalition partners, the National Awakening Party (PKB), has adopted the government's stance on the bailout. The other four have denounced it as illegal. But the parties condemning the controversial bailout lacked an all-important bargaining chip, Arbi said.

"The House has so far failed to prove that the bailout [money] was channeled to the Democrats," he said. "Even if, at the 11th hour, they manage to find a trail leading to Yudhoyono's re-election campaign, would it easily overturn the election result or impeach the president? I think not."

The nine political factions represented on the committee failed to draw a final stance on the bailout issue on Tuesday, arguing that there had been new discoveries of suspicious transactions at Bank Century.

Almost all parties have pledged to maintain their preliminary stance from last week. Seven have declared the bailout illegal and mired in corruption, while only the Democrats and PKB have deemed the bailout legitimate.

Yanuar Rizky, an independent financial and banking analyst, said the government could be looking for revenge against those parties that condemned the bailout. "More dirt will be put out in the open," he said.

Since the House began investigating the bailout, the Directorate General of Taxation and the National Police have moved to investigate allegations of tax evasion against companies linked to the family of Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie. Analysts have speculated that this was in response to Golkar's position on the bailout.

Then on Sunday, an anonymous source alleged to reporters that Emir Moeis, a lawmaker from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), had received illicit funds from Bank Century shortly before it collapsed. Golkar and the PDI-P are the most vocal critics of the government over the bailout.

"In a way, the new revelations are good for the country's sense of justice," Yanuar said. "Whether the investigation will continue after the House wraps up its investigation is another matter. Only then will we know if the cases are politically motivated."

Members of the special committee are due today to compile their findings on the legal issues surrounding Bank Century's creation, the short-term loan facility offered to the ailing lender and the eventual decision to bail out the bank.