Emmy Fitri – Some media pundits had predicted that Thursday's rallies marking the end of the first 100 days of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second term would be as powerful and far-reaching as the 1998 demonstrations that resulted in the resignation of the dictator Suharto. But they weren't even close.
"The protests just confirmed that the economic conditions are stable and security is solid," said political scientist Ikrar Nusantara, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
Ikrar added that the protesters could have mustered "real people power," as was demonstrated in 1998, if conditions had truly warranted it.
"But apart from the legal mess faced by the government, Indonesia is stable. I am one of those opposing [street protests] as a method for ousting a leader," he said. "If we want to force the president to step down, let the House committee tasked with the Century bailout case provide us with real results."
Ikrar was referring to the House of Representatives' special committee investigating the Rp 6.7 trillion ($710 million) bailout of Bank Century.
He said the ongoing corruption scandals were too "elitist" and were only followed closely by the educated middle-class.
"Even if the House committee could come up with a convincing conclusion on the Century case, Yudhoyono's strong Democratic lawmakers and his political allies would never allow the launch of impeachment procedures. They would stall the process," Ikrar said. "If I were SBY, I would just relax. He has so much power. He really didn't have to act like a crybaby and whine to the military or to the people."
Widespread reports suggested that some groups wanted to emulate the 1998 street protests. On May 12, 1998, Jakarta was paralyzed as students took to the streets, protesting Suharto's seventh term in office and demanding his resignation.
Four students were shot during the May 12 rally in front of Trisakti University. The shootings sparked riots in major cities across the country, particularly Jakarta. Suharto was eventually forced to resign after 31 years in power.
Former student activist Bernard Napitupulu said on Thursday that today's political conditions had not reached the point of no return as they had in 1998, when those from the middle class resorted to "conducting political negotiations" with the government.
"Activists from the '98 movement tend to see today's democratic process as a healthy one," said Bernard, who began his political activism in 1970s.
Thursday's rallies were dominated by those from Islamic-affiliated groups, he said, and not pro-people movements. "They are not independent. Go figure," he said, refusing to elaborate.
Jakarta Police records stated that 64 groups had signed up to throng the capital's thoroughfares on Thursday, and traffic was rerouted to avoid congestion, particularly around the protest hot spots, such as the House of Representatives and the State Palace.