Febriamy Hutapea & Muninggar Sri Saraswati – The weekend election of economic czar Hatta Rajasa to lead the National Mandate Party should provide much-needed positive political news to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and enable him to further consolidate his ruling coalition.
But analysts warned that Yudhoyono's government remained vulnerable to threats from the House of Representatives' special committee investigating the controversial Rp 6.7 trillion ($710 million) bailout of PT Bank Century.
This could be a week of high drama as lawmakers begin examining the government's policy in approving the November 2008 bailout.
On Tuesday, Vice President Boediono will appear for questioning a second time, while Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati will appear on Wednesday and Friday.
Hatta, the coordinating minister for the economy and a close ally of the president, was chosen as chairman of the party, also known as PAN, on Saturday during its national congress in Batam, having received the blessing of party founder Amien Rais.
However, Sunny Tanuwijaya, a researcher from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, said on Sunday that Hatta's triumph would not automatically mean he could control PAN lawmakers investigating the Bank Century.
Given past experiences within PAN, and the fact that direct legislative elections render lawmakers less beholden to party bosses, Tanuwijaya said Hatta would not be able to discipline lawmakers who did not follow the coalition line. The party had previously distanced itself from Yudhoyono's government under the leadership of Rais, who had called on Boediono and Mulyani to step down because of the Century case.
"However, [Hatta's] probability of influencing his party members will be better due to his logistical resources [as economic minister] and charisma as a canny politician," Tanuwijaya said.
Airlangga Pribadi, a political observer from Airlangga University in Surabaya, said that while PAN appeared to be a loyal member of the coalition led by Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, anything could happen. He noted that PAN stood to benefit if Boediono were forced to resign due to the Bank Century probe as Hatta would be a leading candidate to replace him as vice president.
"PAN is still observing the situation. It may change its stance in line with political negotiations within the ruling coalition," Pribadi said.
Boediono was central bank governor and Mulyani headed the Committee for Financial Sector Stability (KSSK) when the bailout occurred. Both pressed hard to save the troubled bank.