Jakarta – With billions of rupiah up for grabs, the 2009 presidential election has set the stage for a "survey war" among polling institutes as the lucrative business of political consultancy continues to flourish.
Burhanudin Muhtadi, a researcher from the Indonesian Survey Institute, said competition among survey institutes had turned into "an open war", with each presidential candidate commissioning at least one company to keep them updated on their public perception.
"Competition among survey institutes is normal, but the growing trend is that the competition has turned political surveys into politics of surveys," he said.
He said recent surveys on voter preferences for the July 8 presidential election showed contrasting results, highlighting the alliances and competition growing within the industry.
Surveys conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle and Indonesian Survey Institute, linked to the Democratic Party, suggest that presidential candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will win the election in one round with more than 60 percent of the votes.
These results are in stark contrast to those concluded by the Indonesian Sociopolitical Development Strategy Research Center and the Information Research Institute, aligned with the Golkar Party, which show the election will end after a second round, with SBY only winning 30 percent of votes in the first round.
Burhanudin said the rivalry between surveyors was contributing to public confusion about the election. "The public are becoming sceptical of survey results due to these contradictions," he said.
Muhammad Qodari, executive director of Indo Barometer, said with political interests infiltrating survey companies, predicting election results had become more than just a business.
"The next local polls will see 500 regional direct elections take place. If three candidates compete in every election that means there are 1,500 candidates needing political consultants. It's a huge business," he said.
Meanwhile, Rocky Gerung, a political observer from the University of Indonesia, said that politics had become an industry that could jeopardize democracy.
"Behind the pollsters, there's capital, and behind it, there's the owner who holds power. The logic of the industry is that pollsters work for those in power," he said.
Rocky said while in democracies all people are theoretically equal, surveyors often overlooked the sentiments of the real majority.
Hari Wijayanto, head of the ethics board of the Association of the Indonesian Public Opinion Survey Institutes (Persepi), said it would cost more than Rp 3 billion (US$291,000) to conduct a national survey. (fmb)