Camelia Pasandaran – A tetchy rivalry between election pollsters turned to embarrassment on Tuesday as three leading groups acknowledged that some of their surveys had been skewed by inaccurate sampling.
The admission by representatives of the Information Research Council (LRI), Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and Institute of Economic and Social Studies and Development (LP3ES) in a panel discussion prompted calls for more scrutiny of polling groups.
The often rancorous discussion was held in response to recent revelations that one survey group was linked to Vice President Jusuf Kalla's campaign, while another was hired to do a poll for the campaign of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
"As we admitted during the survey release, our sample validation is a bit problematic," said Johan Silalahi, the director of LRI and a political consultant to Kalla's campaign. He acknowledged his group's sampling didn't match the demographic data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on voter education levels or rural versus urban composition.
LRI last week surveyed 2,096 people in 33 provinces, concluding that Yudhoyono's lead was not as large as believed at only 33 percent. Vice President Jusuf Kalla had 29 percent and Megawati Sukarnoputri 20 percent.
LRI's results differed dramatically to surveys conducted by the two other pollsters.
On Monday, LP3ES released a poll done by phone showing Yudhoyono at 54.9 percent, Megawati 9.7 percent and Kalla 6.8 percent. But Fajar Nursahid, LP3E's research director, admitted the survey didn't reflect the nation. "We did the survey only in 15 big cities," he said. "The results for sure cannot be claimed as nationwide opinions about the candidates.
LSI, the country's most prominent pollster, conducted a poll in late May showing Yudhoyono enjoying a huge lead with 71 percent support. Megawati had 16.4 percent and Jusuf Kalla 6 percent.
But LSI admitted last week it was paid around Rp 500 million ($50,000) to do the poll by Fox Indonesia, a consulting firm working for Yudhoyono's campaign.
LSI's critics point out that its final survey ahead of the April 9 legislative elections predicted that Yudhoyono's Democratic Party would win with 26 percent of the vote. They won 20.8 percent, outside the survey's margin of error. "Surveys can be wrong," said LSI research director Dodi Ambardi.