Surabaya – Despite recent surveys showing 70 percent support for incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, it is unlikely the upcoming presidential election will be decided in a single round as all three candidates have conservative supporters at the grassroots level, some political analysts say.

Airlangga University professor Muhammad Asfar, said the pattern of political support for the three candidates was, on average, even, and will remain dynamic until election day as any event could be politicised and incorporated into campaigning.

"After the legislative election, the incumbent president's popularity reached 70 percent but two weeks later, his popularity went down to 60 percent and therefore, it is unlikely he will win the majority of votes or 50 percent plus one, in one round," he said.

Aribowo, another Airlangga political analyst, concurred, saying the election would only take one round if political support for the Democratic Party (PD) remains as high as it was in the legislative election. "In East Java, for instance, 60 percent of Nahdlatul Ulama supporters voted for the PD in the legislative election but this will not necessarily be true of the presidential election."