Jakarta – In contrast to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) less than a week ago, the results of a survey published by the Information Research Institute (LRI) has found the July presidential election will end in two rounds.
"I am sure the election will end in two rounds. If I am wrong, then I am ready to close down my institution," LRI Director Johan Silalahi told a press conference in Menteng, Central Jakarta, on Sunday.
Johan said that although it was clear he had a political allegiance with Kalla, his survey was funded by various businesses, and not by Kalla himself.
Johan is also the chairman of the Johans Foundation, a strategic consultative company currently employed by Kalla. "On the other hand, if I'm right, then the other institution must be willing to disband itself for its credibility's sake," Johan added.
The survey conducted by LSI has sparked controversy in the last couple of days. The results of LSI's survey suggest the election would end in a single round with the victory of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) of the Democratic Party (PD).
According to the LSI survey, SBY will win the election by a whopping 70 percent of votes. Indonesian law stipulates that an election is decided when a candidate secures more than 50 percent of votes.
However, the credibility of the LSI survey has been questioned as it was commissioned by Fox Indonesia, a political consultant firm employed by SBY's team.
Despite the fact it still puts SBY as the front runner, the LRI survey, on the other hand, shows a considerably more moderated margin of difference between the candidates.
According to the LRI survey, SBY will win the election by around 33 percent of the vote, Jusef Kallah of the Golkar Party would follow in second place with around 29 percent, while Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) will come in last with around 20 percent.
"Based on my field research, there has been a massive migration of voters, especially Islamic-based and grassroots voters. The migration is the fault of no one other than SBY's presidential election team. First, one of the team members ignited the jilbab issue and then another member added fuel to the fire by throwing a racist comment against people of a certain ethnicity," Johan said.
Zulkieflimansyah, deputy secretary-general of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), one of the PD's coalition partners, said a few weeks ago that his party's grassroots voters might switch and cast their votes for Kalla due to the fact that his wife regularly wears a jilbab (Muslim head dress).
Ruhut Sitompul, one of the PD's central board chairmen, was caught on camera saying, "Arabs have never done anything for Indonesia."
However, a political analyst from Charta Politika Indonesia, Bima Arya Sugiarto, said the LRI survey has a few weaknesses.
"Elementary school is the highest level of education for only 31 percent of the total respondents, while according to the BPS (Central Statistic Agency), this is the highest level of education for around 61 percent of voters."
The Presidential election is scheduled for July 8. (hdt)