Lilian Budianto, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is coming under scrutiny over his credentials in making peace with separatists in Papua, as well as quelling sectarian conflicts in the predominantly Muslim country.
Although pollsters predict he will prevail in the July 8 presidential election SBY's wariness in cracking down deep-rooted separatism and his tendency to bow to Muslim groups' pressure in handling sectarian conflicts will undermine his quest for presidency, analysts say.
SBY has only played a second fiddle in ending the 30 year-old insurgency in Aceh, home to huge reserves of oil and gas. He credited the peace deal, signed in 2005 in Helsinki, to Vice President Jusuf Kalla, his rival in the upcoming election.
Kalla navigated Indonesian delegations in negotiating the peace terms with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) from Jakarta. Kalla accomplished a job that four previous presidents had failed, including Megawati Soekarnoputri, who will also seek a five-year mandate in the coming polls.
"Kalla managed to ensure the separatists to cease their armed fighting and remain with the Republic of Indonesia in return for a number of autonomy offers," said Ahmad Syafi'ie Maarif, the former chairman of influential Islamic organization Muhammadiyah.
Kalla offered a special autonomy deal that included 70 percent of shares yielded from Aceh natural resources, implementation of sharia, existence of local parties and amnesty for rebels.
Although the special autonomy deal had been met with protests by opposition party, the peace pact was touted by the international community as a model to end separatism worldwide, as against use of military force.
"Kalla succeeded where his boss had failed. and the highlights of the Aceh peace deal will put SBY in a very weak position ahead of the polls," Syafi'ie said Sunday.
As the chief security minister under Megawati's presidency, SBY failed to maintain a 2002 ceasefire negotiated with GAM. The government then imposed a martial law in Aceh in mid-2003 due to worsening tensions with the rebel group.
Peace talks resumed after Aceh was devastated by tsunami in December 2004, which claimed up to 150,000 lives.
As the chief welfare minister under President Megawati, Kalla successfully brought conflicting parties in the Central Sulawesi town of Poso and Maluku to sign peace pacts in 2001 and 2002 respectively.
SBY had only a minor portfolio in securing the peace deals, which ended almost four years of Muslim-Christian conflicts that killed up to 8,000 people and displaced more than 520,000 others.
"SBY has been proved weak when it comes to handling pressure from Muslim groups," said Bantarto Bandoro, who chairs the Indonesian Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "In contrast, Kalla is able to strike a more balanced position as a mediator."
Bantarto said SBY's chances to prove his leadership in tackling insurgency and sectarian conflicts would rest on how he would quell tensions in the volatile province of Papua.
The country's easternmost province of Papua is underdeveloped but rich in natural resources with a majority of Christian population. Although Papua was given special autonomy in 2002, tension continues to run high as a low key separatist movement still wages independence campaigns. Clashes between security personnel and rebels of the Free Papua Organization have erupted occasionally out of trivial disputes.
In a sign of embracing defiant Papua, SBY invited exiled founder of the Free Papua Movement Nicolas Jouwe to Jakarta in March to ask him to help end the four-decade of rebellion. However, a chance for long-standing peace remains bleak as Nicolas's return to fulfil the government's invitation has enraged separatist leaders in Papua, stoking even more tension with the military.
"SBY has to show a clear platform in following up Papua issues, which will remain the key factor to judge his capability to rule," Bantarto said.
"He should pay attention to the sensitivity of Papuans, majority of whom are non-Muslims, in offering a settlement over grievances that they have been abandoned by the government."
The geographically-isolated Papua has become the center of attention from major powers like the United States, whose copper and gold mining company Freeport has been operating for some 40 years on the island while the natives have lived in poverty and illiteracy.
"SBY still has lots of space to work on Papua as grievances still simmer below the surface," Bantarto said. "This could be a chance for SBY to outstrip Kalla's international popularity".