Desy Nurhayati, Jakarta – Islamic parties might not be able to secure a significant number of votes in this year's legislative elections as the parties have been abandoned by supporters because of internal problems, analysts said Wednesday.

Foreign and local analysts said that even the country's rising Islamic party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), is unlikely to enjoy further success because the party's attempt to shift its position to the middle might put it in jeopardy.

"The PKS is obviously moving to the middle and trying to be a more open party. But instead of attracting more supporters the party has lost its distinction, and people will consider them "just another party"," Greg Fealy, an analyst of Islam and Politics with the Australian National University, said in a discussion.

The PKS ranked sixth in the 2004 election, with 7.34 percent of the national vote. In this year's election it has set its aims high by targeting 20 percent of votes.

"If we look at several recent surveys, this year's election might be the worst for Islamic parties since the fall of Soeharto in 1998," Fealy said.

A recent survey, conducted jointly by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and three other institutions revealed a significant decline in the popularity of Islamic parties, including the PKS, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), compared to the 2004 elections.

Several areas including West and East Java, previously PKS and PKB strongholds, have since been penetrated by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, the survey shows.

A researcher with the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Burhanudin Muhtadi, shared similar views. "The PKS is experiencing an erosion of electability, because their loyal supporters have begun to lose faith in the party," Burhanudin, who worked on a thesis on PKS, said.

"In 2004, the PKS was successful because the party distinguished itself as a clean, caring and professional party. But now people consider the party to be losing its identity and to be too pragmatic."

The electability of other Islamic parties might also tumble due to problems within the parties, Fealy said.

"The PKB is losing ground since Gus Dur withdrew his support and continues to act against the party," he said, referring to PKB founder and former president Abdurrahman Wahid. The PPP, he went on, has never made any breakthrough. "The leadership of Surya Darma Ali has yet to have significant impact on the party."

"The PAN is also sinking due to alienations, while the PBB (the Crescent Star Party) seems stagnant. The PBB did not even get the 2.5 percent parliamentary threshold in the recent surveys."

Other factors that caused Islamic parties to loose support included a crisis of leadership and cadre formation and because most Muslims are swing voters, he said.

"Not all of Muslims are willing to vote for Islamic parties," he said, adding that the conditions are different from the 1955 elections, when half of Muslim voters voted for Islamic parties.