Erwida Maulia, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's popularity is on the rebound after previous polls put him behind rival Megawati Soekarnoputri, but is facing a new threat from the global financial meltdown, a new survey reveals.
The survey, conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) from Sept. 8-20, 2008, involved 1,239 respondents from 33 provinces, and was released on Sunday.
The survey also showed former Army Special Forces chief Prabowo Subianto gaining in popularity, although in absolute numbers he still lags far behind both Yudhoyono and Megawati.
Other presidential hopefuls, including former Indonesian Military commander Wiranto, Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Amin Rais and Akbar Tandjung have seen their popularity erode from 2003 levels, according to the survey.
Some 32 percent of respondents supported Yudhoyono, with only 24 percent backing Megawati. A similar LSI survey carried out in June this year gave Megawati 30 percent of public support and Yudhoyono 25 percent.
Support for Wiranto declined from 9 percent in June to 6 percent in September, and from 5 percent to 3 percent for Hamengkubuwono.
Prabowo's support rose from 3 percent to 5 percent, while Vice President Jusuf Kalla remained unpopular with only 2 percent of votes.
LSI executive director Saiful Mujani said Yudhoyono's decision to raise fuel prices in May proved detrimental to his popularity, but the compensation programs he launched afterwards seemingly managed to counter the negative impact of the contentious policy, winning back most public support.
The programs included direct cash assistance for lower-income families, school operational aid, and loans for micro, small and medium enterprises.
"During four years of Yudhoyono's presidency, public support has fluctuated a lot, but there is a declining trend of public satisfaction over his performance. The level usually drops in the first semester, but recovers in the second," Saiful said.
He added Yudhoyono's lowest rating was recorded in June, backed up by other surveys conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indo Barometer and the Reform Institute. All of the surveys indicated Megawati's popularity surpassed that of Yudhoyono shortly after the May fuel price hike.
Saiful predicted Yudhoyono would maintain his popularity until December and had a good chance of winning a second term in office if the economic situation remained under control.
That chance, however, is under threat from the looming US-led global financial turmoil. Some observers have predicted that the wider Indonesian public will begin feeling the impact of the crisis by early next year.
"Yudhoyono's popularity depends heavily on the economic situation," Saiful said.
"If most voters consider the economic situation under his administration to be negative, then public satisfaction over his performance will decline sharply. It was this declining level that allowed him to fall behind Megawati in the June 2008 (survey)."