Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – Public support for older parties are expected to stagnate, paving the ways for new political groups to seize significant backing from millions of swing voters by flooding them with media advertisements, according to a survey.
A poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) showed the deluge of TV spots from the Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) has boosted the popularity of the new party to levels above those of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).
The survey found 3.2 percent of 1,249 surveyed respondents would vote for Gerindra, compared to 2.7 percent for PAN and 2.4 percent for PPP.
"For a newcomer, it's a great achievement, which they owe to the massive TV advertising," LSI senior researcher Dodi Ambardi said when announcing the survey results Thursday.
PAN won 6.4 percent of votes in the 2004 elections; PPP got 8.2 percent.
The survey, conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 20, 2008, revealed 25 percent of respondents were still undecided.
Dodi said Gerindra ran the most successful TV campaign with its clear message to its targeted market: the party offers assistance to farmers, fishermen and other disadvantaged groups.
The survey showed 51 percent of respondents had memorized Gerindra's TV ads featuring the party's founder Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto who is seeking a presidential bid next year.
The survey said 42 percent of TV viewers recalled political ads by the Democratic Party featuring President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, only 31 percent were familiar with the Golkar Party's TV spots, and 27 percent knew the ads from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Golkar features the party chair and Vice President Jusuf Kalla in its TV ads; while PDI-P uses the image of party chair Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Gerindra, officially established in February, decided Thursday to promote Prabowo, a former Army special forces commander, as its presidential candidate in the 2009 election.
Dodi said the media, particularly television networks, have become the most powerful tool for disseminating political massages to the public.
"This is the impact of a silent revolution, where political parties no longer serve as the main channel for disseminating information. That position has been taken over by television," he said.
The LSI survey still ranks PDI-P at the top: 18.6 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the party, followed closely by 18.5 percent for Golkar. PDI-P won 18.6 percent of votes in 2004 elections and Golkar got 21.6 percent.
"The two parties are expected to retain basically the same percentages of the votes in upcoming elections, unless the parties change their campaign methods including bombarding TV viewers with effective ads," he said.
This latest survey indicates the Democratic Party could increase its support from 7.4 percent in the 2004 elections to 12.1 percent in upcoming elections.
The PKS, meanwhile, suffered a fall-off of adherents, 6.3 percent now compared with 7.2 percent in 2004.
An LSI survey conducted in July showed only 16.6 percent of 1,249 surveyed Muslim voters would cast their ballots for Islamic-oriented parties in upcoming elections.
It said 60 percent of Muslim voters would vote for nationalist political groups: either Golkar, PDI-P or the Democratic Party.