Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has widened its lead over the Golkar Party by more than 11 percent, according a new survey released Wednesday.
The Survey, conducted by pollster Indo Barometer in 33 provinces between June 5 and 16, found 23.8 percent of 1,200 respondents would vote for the PDI-P, with only 12 percent supporting Golkar and 9.6 percent backing the Democratic Party.
The rising Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) were tied in fourth place with 7.4 percent each, with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the newly established People's Conscience Party (Hanura) following up with 3.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.
The United Development Party (PPP), the country's fourth-largest party, which took about 11 percent of the vote in the 2004 elections, was dealt the most serious blow, with only 1.6 percent of respondents supporting the party.
About 29.4 percent of the respondents were undecided over which party they would vote for, the survey said.
The survey indicated a sharp and persistent decline in the popularity of Golkar, which won the 2004 elections with 21.5 percent of the vote. The PDI-P, chaired by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, won 18.5 percent of the vote.
Golkar, which is led by Vice President Jusuf Kalla, is the country's largest political party.
A similar survey undertaken in May last year showed Golkar was trailing the PDI-P by only 1 percent. Another survey conducted six months later found Golkar's popularity had fallen further – to 18 percent compared with the PDI-P's 25.3 percent.
"The survey shows consistent results about the likely victory of the PDI-P (in the 2009 elections)," Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said at the survey launch Wednesday. "Golkar will have to make a massive effort to reverse its position in the next nine months."
He said the PDI-P was leading in opinion polls because it was viewed as in touch and honest. More than two-thirds of respondents said they believed the PDI-P cared about and was in touch with the people, whereas only 20 percent had a similar view of Golkar.
About 28 percent of the respondents perceived the PDI-P as honest and free from corruption – whereas only 5.4 percent said the same of Golkar.
The PKS also could further boost its popularity by building on its image as a clean and honest party, Qodari said.
The Democratic Party's main drawcard seemed to be President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as most people who support Yudhoyono will also vote for his party, he said.
The PKB could continue to grow in popularity because most Nahdlatul Ulama followers in East Java will remain loyal to the party, said Indra J. Pilliang, a researcher from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The survey also showed Islamic parties would lose voters to nationalist parties, with only 21.1 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Islamic parties, compared with 49 percent supporting nationalists.
Indra said the PPP had taken a severe blow in the survey for maintaining its image as an Islamic party. Of the 18 new parties, only Hanura managed to get a good showing in the poll, with its popularity rising from 0.6 percent in May 2007 to 2.3 percent last month.