Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – The latest survey showing a steep decline in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's popularity indicates the people's frustration with the way the government has handled economic problems, observers say.
Experts and activists said people can barely survive with skyrocketing prices of basic commodities, transportation, health and education due to the increased fuel prices. They said if Yudhoyono failed to address his popularity decline, he would harm his chances of reelection.
"The survey sends a yellow light to the President, warning him that people are suffering and that his administration has failed to reach the people," political scientist Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences said.
A survey conducted by Indo Barometer 10 days after the fuel prices increase indicated a sharp fall in Yudhoyono's approval ratings.
The survey, conducted among 1,200 respondents in 33 provinces, found 30.4 percent of respondents would vote for former president Megawati Soekarnoputri in a presidential election compared to only 20.7 percent for Yudhoyono.
A similar survey in May 2007 showed Yudhoyono at 35.3 percent, still far ahead of Megawati at 22.6 percent. A survey last December showed Yudhoyono ahead by a slightly slimmer margin, at 38.1 percent to Megawati's 27.4 percent.
Respondents expressed highest dissatisfaction in the way Yudhoyono had handled the economy, with 79.1 percent saying they were disappointed by his inability to solve economic problems.
Dewi cited the example of the difficulties low-income people faced in gaining access to quality education.
"Low-income families used to use education as a ladder to climb up in society and get a better life. But not anymore. Getting a good education means a lot of money and they just can't afford it," she said. With such constraints, poor people were frustrated knowing they would remain poor, Dewi said.
Economist Faisal Basri of the University of Indonesia said a newer poll could result in even worse ratings for Yudhoyono, now that people had already felt the full impacts of the fuel price increases.
"A month or two after the fuel price hike, people will feel the second round impacts of the raised prices, especially in increased goods and transportation costs," he said.
Faisal said Yudhoyono was "very unfortunate" as he was hit by both global increases of oil prices and food prices at the same time.
However, he said the results did not necessarily guarantee Megawati the presidency, since her approval rating was still just above 30 percent.
"Looking at the survey, the presidency will be decided in the second round as no candidate can garner more than 50 percent of the votes. If the election reaches a second round, it will be between SBY and Megawati, and anything is possible by then," he said.
University of Indonesia expert Fentiny Nugroho said Yudhoyono could rebound only if he enhanced his pro-poor policies in the health and education sectors while trying to create jobs for people.
"Providing jobs and enhancing programs to help the poor in coping with current conditions are ways SBY can regain people's support," she said.