Alfian, Jakarta – The Golkar Party could win the 2009 general elections but it needs to be on the alert for the possible loss of voters to the Democratic Party (PD), observers said Sunday.

Saiful Mujani, executive director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), said that the PD has enjoyed a significant increase in popularity in the last three years.

"Golkar's voters have similar characteristics to those of the PD. It is possible that the PD could take some of Golkar's voters," he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

"The PD's popularity does not depend on its own movement, but rather on the performance of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is the PD's chief patron and founder."

Saiful said although the PD would only make the top three in 2009, its votes would determine who actually won the 2009 poll. "The battle between Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to get the most votes will depend on the PD's votes," he said.

Saiful, however, said that Golkar was still more likely to win. "Since 2004, we have conducted more than 10 surveys on the popularity of the political parties and they showed that Golkar is more frequently ahead," he said.

Political observer Indria Samego from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) drew similar conclusions.

"Golkar has more experience and a stronger political machine," he told the Post on Sunday. "Golkar is the only party to have a structure which reaches even the villages."

Indria added that Golkar had good human resources at all levels of its structure. "A lot of Golkar members are elected as regional chief executives."

Speaking at a ceremony to commemorate the 43rd anniversary of the party on Saturday, Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla was confident that the party would win the 2009 poll.

"All of Golkar's elements demonstrate high solidity. Nobody expresses different principles and goals other than those of the party," he said as quoted by Antara news agency.

Kalla, also the Vice President, held a teleconference with five Golkar provincial chapter chairmen. During his trip to Padang, West Sumatra over the weekend, Kalla said that Golkar planned to get 30 percent of the vote in 2009.

Saiful, however, said he doubted the party would succeed. "Golkar has not demonstrated a significant boost in its popularity," he said, adding that 25 percent of the vote would be a very good result for Golkar.

Saiful said Golkar could not rely on Kalla's performance to increase its popularity.

"Kalla's performance as Vice President will benefit the President and consequently the PD," he said. "Golkar should mobilize its strong members outside Java to increase positive sentiment toward Golkar."

Saiful said Kalla's recent whirlwind tour of nine provinces in Sulawesi and Sumatra was in aid of this.

"Golkar should also strengthen its voters in West Java province who are numerous but also more flexible and rational in picking a party," he said.

"West Java is a critical area. Whoever wins this province will highly determine the winner in national level. Both Golkar and PDI-P have to make an all-out effort in the province."