Imanuddin Razak, Jakarta – While the nation is eagerly waiting for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to announce his limited cabinet shuffle, a no less important change could also be made in the new future – some alterations to the Indonesian Military (TNI) leadership. Why is it no less important?

The post of TNI chief is indeed a strategic one, although administratively the military is under the Defense Ministry. But politically the President has final say, upon receiving the recommendation of the House of Representatives, on who will be the next TNI chief.

And by having the TNI chief at his side, the President can at least enjoy the military's support and have a secured position at least until he completes his five-year term in 2009. Loyal support from the TNI could also assure Yudhoyono further success if he seeks reelection in 2009.

The next question that needs to be asked, however, is whether now is a good time to announce changes in the TNI leadership. The answer could be simple or complicated.

Incumbent TNI chief Air Chief Marshall Djoko Suyanto will be 57 in December, two years past the mandatory retirement age. The President also has only seven more months to reinstall Suyanto, according to the 2004 Indonesian Military Law. He could also delay appointing a new chief until Suyanto retires in December.

But there is the danger that a few more months in waiting could have the potential to cause problems within and among the three wings of the military – the Army, the Navy and the Air Force.

A few more months in office for Suyanto could affect organization and career development plans at TNI headquarters, and in the three branches.

A number of senior generals at TNI headquarters and in the three branches may well have to retire in seven months without being promoted, resulting a trickle down affect through the lower ranks.

And if the President does eventually decide to replace Suyanto, he will have to consider one tricky factor – whether to stay with the agreed rotational system used for the TNI leadership or put more weight on the political considerations of appointing a new TNI chief.

If the rotational system is upheld, the its next leader should come from the Navy. But again, the President must consider the age of the incumbent Navy chief, Adm. Slamet Soebijanto, who will be 56 this June, leaving him with just one year in office.

And the President cannot turn to other Navy high-ranking officers whose ranks are lower than Soebijanto just because he wants to have a TNI chief serving longer than a year.

All of this is because Article 13 of the 2004 law states that to be eligible for the post of TNI chief, officers must have served at least as a chief of staff in any of the three military forces.

Or, if the President would like more political consideration in appointing the new TNI chief, he could turn to the Army.

Paragraph 4 of the same Article 13 of the 2004 law states: "the post of the TNI Commander could be subsequently held by the chiefs of staff of the three branches of the military". This means that the rotation system is not completely binding and could be set aside in accordance with the current sociopolitical situation.

And if that is really the case, the most likely candidate for the post is current Army Chief of Staff Gen. Djoko Santoso, a 1975 graduate of the Military Academy.

Being the youngest of the current three chiefs of staff, Santoso's appointment would also help smooth regeneration and career development in the military. By appointing Santoso, the President would also open the path for younger Army generals to fill the post.

Among the candidates widely tipped to replace Santoso are the current chief of the Army's Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad), Lt. Gen. Erwin Sudjono, a brother-in-law of President Yudhoyono and a 1975 graduate of the Military Academy, and incumbent Secretary General of the Defense Ministry Lt. Gen. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, a 1974 graduate of the academy.

Also included in the list are Yudhoyono's classmates in the 1973 class of the academy – incumbent TNI Chief of Staff for General Affairs Lt. Gen. Endang Suwarya and incumbent Deputy Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herry Tjahjana.

The President already has this information. The only thing he has to do is to carefully and cleverly choose the most acceptable and reliable candidate to support his political ambition and career.