Aguswandi, Banda Aceh – Expectations are high while the possibilities for violence are likely slim in the scheduled December elections in Aceh. Voter turnout is also expected to be high. All the basic requirements for an election are very likely to be fulfilled. But will the Aceh elections be successful?
If success means the absence of significant violence or a high voter turnout at the polls, then we will have success. All realistic projections lead to that conclusion. If violence occurs, it will likely be minor and only in some conflict-intense areas like the central highlands. There is also the possibility of conflicts and protests within the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) constituents, caused by a split within the GAM leadership, but this will not obstruct the election process.
However, the absence of violence and a high voter turnout does not guarantee much. The more important question is whether or not the polls will elect new leaders who have the ability and power to resist old habits which have yet to die. On this topic we still have bad news.
To have great expectations for Aceh's elections is to expect high quality elections – not only in terms of process, but also the ability of the population to understand the meaning of the elections, the power of their vote and also the candidates' vision and future plans if they do win.
In this area, we are still in trouble. But national elections also faced similar problems, where candidates talked little about their programs, while voters were often more interested in the popularity of the candidates or the presence of popular entertainers at their campaign stops.
Candidates so far have said very little about what they will do after they get power. The appeal of all gubernatorial, regent and mayoral candidates in Aceh has so far been based on inarticulate, empty jargon – a product of the particular chemistry between meaningless rhetoric and the ambition to grab power. The best effort many candidates make is to use their personality and sell it to voters.
Early banners show nothing to this effect, or worse, are about completely unrelated issues. One candidate's banner says, "The Prophet is an example" of a good leader.
There have not been proper programs and policies announced by candidates. There has been no debate about platforms and future plans. It is still very much politics without substance in Aceh. The debate has been about whether a particular candidate can read the Koran properly or not, not about answering the real issues affecting real people's lives in Aceh.
Among the population, there is a general lack of understanding about people's own ability to elect good leadership. There is a need to educate voters to have a better understanding about the election of their leaders and the consequences of their choices for the future.
Such education is about helping the Acehnese ask the right questions of their prospective leaders. There is very little news about voter education and building awareness among the population about the impact of these elections on their lives.
On the other hand, Aceh's elections are an opportunity to start the political reconstruction of the province. Those who are interested in a better future for the province must make sure that good leaders are voted into office. In electing governors and district heads, we are electing those who are going to be in charge of maintaining the Aceh peace process, continue to lead post-tsunami reconstruction work and manage the general development plan of the province.
Aceh needs a visionary leader who is smart and brave enough to fight the acute problems in the province. Among the most acute challenges are corruption, bad governance, a badly functioning rule of law, weak capacity of institutions, poor strategic planning and an inability to absorb good development ideas.
These issues have posed significant challenges for many groups working to reconstruct Aceh after the tsunami and the peace deal signed in Helsinki. Many international organizations are complaining – quietly, of course – about these problems.
The incumbent administration in Aceh is neither a failed administration, nor is it a properly developed government administration. It is somewhere in between. We might call this a messy government.
In a messy government, all necessary institutions are there, but they are weak, inefficient and partly incompetent. Here, the ability to absorb ideas is weak. The ability to plan is weak. The ability to execute plans is also weak. What is strong is the ability to waste resources, to justify this waste and to get away with it.
Of course these elections cannot address all of these weaknesses, but they should be the beginning of Aceh's journey to managing these issues. Here we need to improve the quality of Aceh's elections beyond ensuring they run peacefully. We need to ensure they successfully elect good leadership in the province and create a better political process in general. If we are interested in continuing to get good news on Aceh in the future, we must not fail in December.
[The writer is a consultant on post-conflict and reintegration work in Aceh. The views expressed here are personal. He can be reached at agus_smur@hotmail.com.]