Ridwan Max Sijabat, Jakarta – Former rebels may lose upcoming direct elections in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam because they have split into two rival groups, analysts say.
Sidney Jones, Southeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, said the split was due mostly to differences over which former leader of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) should be the group's gubernatorial candidate.
One faction centered around prominent GAM members exiled in Sweden and the other around leaders living in Aceh.
"GAM now is split into the old-guard diaspora led by Human Hamid, and the local resistance group with M. Nazar and Irwandi as their leaders. In addition to the lack of necessary preparations, these conditions make it difficult for GAM to consolidate," she told a discussion Thursday.
Jones said their rivalry was "getting really, really down and dirty now", with both sides trading insults and accusations.
Several GAM leaders have nominated themselves to contest the elections, Jones said, and are expected to win support from their strongholds in East Aceh, Pidie, Central Aceh and Nagan Raya.
She added that the Indonesia Military, which is allegedly backing the nomination of former Iskandar Muda military commander Maj. Gen. (ret.) Djali Yusuf, would have little sway over the gubernatorial election as the Acehnese people were still deeply suspicious of the military.
Jones added that the local elections would be dominated by major political parties, especially the Golkar Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the National Mandate Party and the United Development Party.
She said the 2009 general elections offered former rebels a good chance to win seats in the provincial and regional legislatures, which would give them more political clout to run in the 2014 elections.
Paul Rowland, resident representative of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), warned of possible violence during and after the elections.
"Like the past elections in other regions, clashes could flare up at all phases of the local elections," he said in the same discussion. He said violence could break out if the defeated candidates did not accept their losses.
Problems have already begun in the early phase of the gubernatorial election, as independent female candidate Mediati Hafni Hanum was declared to have failed a Koran reading test. She has disputed the test results. The test is a requirement for candidates running in the gubernatorial election.
Rowland said problems could also arise if the Independent Election Commission (KIP) produced inaccurate data in registering voters or verifying candidates. Clashes with security forces were also a danger, he said. "Possible intimidation of voters and candidates by security authorities and personnel could potentially trigger conflicts."