Aleksius Jemadu, Bandung – The success of a monitoring mission involving foreign parties in resolving an intra-state conflict can be achieved as long as the implementation of the peace agreement satisfies the expectations of the conflicting parties.

What are the expectations of the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) as regards the implementation of the peace agreement in Aceh? Both the Indonesian government and GAM acknowledge that the peace agreement is the best result that can be hoped for from a long process of negotiation. It is a kind of win-win solution for both sides.

However, the implementation of the peace agreement may eventually flounder on incompatible expectations. It is quite clear that for the Indonesian government the most important thing is that GAM abandons its claim for an independent state and disarms itself at a time when international donors are closely watching the post-tsunami reconstruction of Aceh. While on the Indonesian side debates about the content of the peace agreement are still going on, GAM appears to be more solid and united in welcoming the peace process. There are various reasons why GAM leaders should feel happier today than they did when the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) was signed in 2002.

First, the current peace agreement has opened the way for GAM to continue its struggle by transforming itself into a local political party. The martial law that was imposed by the Indonesian government in May 2003 had a devastating impact on GAM's military structure. Thus, there is no reason for GAM to stick with the military struggle.

Second, the peace agreement clearly stipulates that Aceh's future legislature will be a powerful body. According to the agreement, the Indonesian government needs the consent of the Aceh legislature whenever it makes strategic decisions related to the interests of Aceh. GAM has calculated that as a local political party it will have a good chance of dominating local elections.

Why? Most of the Acehnese people still feel let down by Jakarta. Years of abuse of human rights abuses, unfair exploitation of Aceh's natural resources, and a series of corruption scandals have occupied the collective mind of the Acehnese to such an extent that they will reject any kind of politics that represents a return of Jakarta's dominance. Thus, other local political parties will have a hard time challenging the highly motivated young members of GAM. Assuming that the local elections will produce an overwhelming majority for GAM, doesn't it sound like a referendum by any other name?

The third reason for GAM's enthusiasm is the wide authority given to the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM). The agreement sets out a list of the AMM's duties. Of particular importance is the fact that the AMM is authorized to monitor changes in the legislation and launch investigations if such changes deviate from the principles of the agreement.

On top of that, it is also clearly stipulated that the head of the AMM is authorized to rule on any dispute and that his ruling is binding on all sides. It even says that if eventually the two parties cannot agree on the ruling by the AMM head, "the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Crisis Management Initiative will make a ruling which will be binding on the parties".

There are signs that the Indonesian government is beginning to develop a different perception of the role of the AMM. When President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono briefed the military top brass recently on the substance of the peace agreement, he convinced them that they should not worry about the role of the AMM as the body was not authorized to rule on any dispute between the two sides. He said that such authority belonged to the central government. This statement by the President appears to contradict the substance of the peace agreement.

The first month of implementation of the peace agreement seems to have passed off smoothly. The biggest test for the survival of the agreement will arise when it becomes time to change the legislation and whether the Indonesian government will abide by the AMM rulings if there are legitimate complaints from GAM regarding incompatibility between the proposed new legislation and the principles contained in the peace agreement. It is very likely that the Indonesian side will face difficulties in fulfilling its obligations in accordance with those principles.

All sides should be happy with the fact that today the Acehnese people can enjoy peace. We must not let politicking among the Jakarta elite to disrupt that enjoyment, given that the Acehnese people have been longing for peace for decades.

[The writer is head of the Department of International Relations, Parahyangan University, Bandung.]