Banda Aceh – Hopes are high that a peace deal to be signed Monday will finally end decades of bloodshed between troops and separatist rebels in Indonesia's Aceh province, but analysts warn the road to lasting peace will not be smooth.
The Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) will on Monday sign a peace accord in the Finnish capital Helsinki, capping six months of negotiations to bring peace to the troubled and tsunami-shattered region.
Two earlier truces, in 2000 and 2002, were short-lived, with both sides accusing the other of violations and descending once more into the violence which has claimed almost 15,000 lives, mostly civilian, since the rebels launched their revolt in 1976. On both occasions, hopes for peace had been high.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic that this time the peace deal will hold, pointing out that both sides are making concessions and that a more rigorous monitoring system of about 200 foreign observers is in place.
"My impression is that this agreement document is much more detailed, more concrete, and therefore the possibility of this agreement turning sour is much less," said former human rights minister Hasballah Saad.
Saad, an Acehnese who has been working to promote peace in his home province, said however that many issues remained to be addressed. Both sides should learn from the past and "should show the goodwill to really protect the peace process," he said.
Rights activists say this time both sides appear much more determined to make it work. "This time, the potential for this peace deal to be implemented is much stronger than in 2000 and 2002," said Otto Syamsuddin Ishak, an activist with human rights group Imparsial, which has been monitoring the conflict in Aceh.
Ishak, who just returned from a visit to Aceh, said his optimism was widely shared in the province. Both sides appeared more determined to achieve peace, a spirit reflected by their willingness to compromise, he said.
The GAM dropped its demand for independence while the government was willing to work to allow local political parties in Aceh, which are currently prohibited.
Unlike their predecessors, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Yusuf Kalla have also shown that "they are both prepared to fight for this peace and persuade those against it," Ishak said.
Decades of relentless violence had shown that the military approach did not work, said J. Kristiadi, political scientist and deputy director of the Centre for Strategic International Studies. "I think both camps are tired and realize after 30 years, that a military approach cannot solve this problem," he said.
Former rights minister Saad said that, unlike past agreements, which only aimed at a truce, the goal of the Helsinki accord was a lasting peace.
The negotiations which led to the agreement were also the first face-to-face talks. Previous talks had been held through a mediator. "The current deal is also marked by much more pragmatism and workability," Kristiadi said.
Many issues, however, remain unaddressed and need to be anticipated if the peace process is not to meet the same fate as the two previous truces, said Saad.
Problem areas which needed to be tackled included the effective protection of foreign monitors and the criteria under which former rebels would be granted an amnesty, as promised by the government.
The participation of GAM members in local elections in Aceh slated for April 2006 and arrangements for local political parties also had to be addressed.
"The question is whether this agreement can become effective while at the same time not giving rise to new problems both for Aceh and for Indonesia," said M.T. Arifin, an observer of political and military affairs at the state-run 11 March University in Solo, Central Java.
Although the top military brass and exiled GAM leaders have publicly said they would support the peace deal, this sentiment may not extend all the way down to the soldiers and guerrillas in the field, Arifin said. "They may not have the required mind-set for peace, being so used to the years and years of conflict," said Ishak. Ishak suggested that it might help to replace all military field commanders with officers who have no previous Aceh experience.
The December 26 tsunami which devastated Aceh, killing at least 130,000 people, was a catalyst for the negotiations. "They have all had enough of war, and the destruction brought by the tsunami was the drop that caused the dam to burst," Ishak said.
A lasting peace deal would allow disbursement of some five billion dollars pledged by the international community to help rebuild Aceh.