The Australian-led military intervention in East Timor is considered one of the most successful peacekeeping missions in history. From the rubble of 1999 a mostly stable democratic nation has emerged. When the last of the United Nations peacekeepers pulled out over the weekend, there was good reason to celebrate. Apart from a small contingent of civilian advisers, the UN's mission in East Timor is over. Three years after gaining independence, East Timor is standing alone.
But those who hail East Timor as a textbook model are mainly international experts and diplomats who understand the slow and arduous process of nation-building. The new nation had to be built from scratch because the scorched-earth policy of departing Indonesian troops ensured only chaos was left behind. East Timor had no experience of self-rule, a dire shortage of skilled locals to fill key positions in the bureaucracy, judiciary and security forces, and an entire generation of former pro-independence guerilla fighters to bring in from the jungle. But so much hope had been invested in the independence campaign, and so much sacrificed to it, that popular expectations soared. Many East Timorese have been disappointed.
Those old enemies – poverty, malnutrition, child mortality, illiteracy, and unemployment – still haunt their lives.
At the weekend, the President, Xanana Gusmao, reiterated the sombre message that much hard work and sacrifice still lie ahead. Demonstrations and unrest this year suggest public patience is fraying, especially with those members of the new political elite who seem to have come into money, despite their nation's extreme hardship. And with the departure of the UN goes much of the cash which has temporarily buoyed the local economy, and many of the service jobs which supported the international deployment.
It is more urgent than ever for East Timor to gain access to oil and gas revenue from the Timor Sea.
The resolution of the dispute with Australia over the Timor Sea deposits is reportedly imminent. East Timor is expecting a fiscal lifeline worth about $5 billion. The money, however, is no guarantee of prosperity. Poorly governed nations such as Nauru and Papua New Guinea have demonstrated how quickly earnings from finite resources can be squandered. East Timor has a sound long-term investment plan on the books, but much depends on whether the oil and gas revenue can be turned into jobs. With only 800,000 people, no viable industries and barely a trickle of exports, such as coffee and handicrafts, there is no simple answer to East Timor's economic woes.
Australia has much invested in East Timor's future; our security depends on a viable, secure nation to our north. But there is more to it than that.
Australian goodwill dates to World War II. Canberra's reported agreement to share Timor Sea oil and gas revenue more equitably will smooth over an unhappy diplomatic rift. Most importantly, it will give East Timor a realistic chance at self-reliance. How it handles that chance is the real test of the UN mission's success.