Canberra – Australia has managed to out-wait a cash strapped East Timor in reaching agreement on lucrative Timor Sea oil and gas revenues, US-based strategic thinktank Stratfor says.

In an analysis of the deal which is set to be finalised in Brisbane on May 11, Stratfor said Dili was always likely to cave in.

"Canberra has very squarely brought East Timor – a country it once aided in gaining independence from Indonesia – to Canberra's mercy for its very survival," it said.

Under the agreement, East Timor will receive compensation for a portion of the oil development expected to come from the Timor Sea, in addition to the revenue granted in previous agreements.

Australia and East Timor also agreed to postpone talks regarding the exact settlement of maritime borders for an undisclosed period to bring back investors scared away by the prospect of a border dispute.

Stratfor, which is based in Austin, Texas, said the months of negotiations were little more than a waiting game.

"Australia had the bargaining position and financial resources to stall until the smaller country buckled under financial strain," it said.

"The Timorese, needing fast cash flow, were forced to accept the Australians' offer in order to survive, regardless of their position in the sea boundary dispute."

Stratfor said the extended postponement of the territorial settlement gave East Timor a glimmer of hope that at some stage, they might have sufficient leverage to gain more of the territory.

"However, any ultimate deal probably will allow for the conflict to be settled after oil and gas from the area already has been extracted, with no chance of further profits for the Timorese and thus no reason for conflict," it said.

"The Australians, on the other hand, can reap much quicker financial benefits from the postponement as there is little reason for those investing in the area to further delay explorations.

"Canberra also gets the bonus of additional strength to its security policy in the near abroad and more solid relations with Indonesia."

Stratfor describes itself in its website as the world's leading private intelligence provider, giving what is says is unbiased and accurate analysis of global activities to individuals, corporations, and government agencies.