Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Newly inaugurated Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, also known as SBY, is borrowing a page from another president known by his three initials: America's Franklin Delano Roosevelt, FDR (1933-1945). In his first 100 days in office, FDR enacted sweeping changes to combat the Great Depression that began years before his term and lasted for more than a decade. Yudhoyono is also promising swift action in his first 100 days to confront Indonesia's lingering economic, political and social maladies.
Not all of FDR's initial ideas were right, but his resolute steps lifted the country's spirits and signaled a decisive break from the previous administration. It would be a great trick for SBY to duplicate on these leading domestic issues. As the first directly elected president in Indonesian history, Yudhoyono has a mandate for change.
Unfortunately, SBY doesn't have the tools at his disposal for historical changes that FDR did. For example, Yudhoyono doesn't have a platform, partners or a program. Rather than hit the ground running the way FDR did seven decades ago, it will be a challenge for SBY to hit the ground without falling flat on his face. Having taken the oath of office on October 20, Yudhoyono has already served nine days as president. Over the next 91 days, the best he can realistically do is create policies that might address key issues in the remainder of his five-year term.
Voting for nothing
Although he topped the field in the first round of voting in July and received a 61% mandate in the run-off against incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri, September's election wasn't about policies but personalities. After all, Yudhoyono and his running mate, Jusuf Kalla, were once two of the leading ministers in Megawati's cabinet, so it's not as if they planned to chart a radical new course for the country.
Moreover, from the time he quit Megawati's cabinet in a huff in March, SBY found himself leading the polls by a wide margin. Thus his election campaign avoided taking positions that might have cost him supporters. He spoke in platitudes; in favor of more jobs, against corruption, and for national unity. So while SBY got a big portion of the vote, it wasn't an endorsement of any particular policy.
As the head of a new party, Yudhoyono didn't have a deep pool of talent from which to draw his new 36-member cabinet. With his party holding less than 10% of the seats in the legislature, SBY needed to reach out to various factions in order to broaden his support with an eye toward finding a legislative majority for his programs. As a result, his cabinet is a reflection of the need for political balancing and compromise, rather than a unified team marching in a bold direction set by the president.
The cabinet's initial task is not to enact decisive programs that address national priorities such as economic growth, corruption and rule of law, but to formulate plans for tackling these problems. Regardless, whatever plans emerge are unlikely to be bold, fresh initiatives given the combination of old faces and compromised choices in the cabinet as well as Yudhoyono's famously cautious nature that his overwhelming mandate seems to have left unchanged.
Countdown to accountability
If, at the end of his first 100 days, ministers announce plans to grapple with the country's most pressing problems, this certainly will represent a major accomplishment and a significant break from the past. The act of government officials declaring their intentions and inviting public accountability would be a radical change for Indonesia. But the real test won't be declaring the plans, or even making them succeed, but seeing whether these policies have a real impact on key issues: will they produce real economic recovery, public safety, and national unity? It will take thousands of days for those results to be seen.
The focus on Yudhoyono's first 100 days is solely a public-relations move. And at the end of that time, the best Indonesians can expect is a public-relations victory. That may be an improvement over the uncommunicative Megawati regime, but it won't produce added jobs or investment or provide anything else of substance.
Sadly, if SBY's first 100 days are destined to be little more than a public-relations exercise, he's already let a major opportunity pass. Last Friday night, vigilantes from the Islam Defenders Front (FPI) attacked Star Deli, a popular nightspot in South Jakarta's fashionable Kemang district frequented by the city's expatriates.
Star Deli had committed the crime of serving alcohol during Ramadan. While these attacks typically are perpetrated in the name of Islam, often they are associated with payoffs, or lack thereof, to authorities. Police had warned Star Deli's proprietors of a possible attack early in the day and, the owner said, forced an early closing. But police weren't around when FPI's mob showed up about an hour later and trashed the restaurant.
The sound of one headline dueling
Yudhoyono says one of his top priorities is to improve the climate for investment. A key concern holding back foreign investment is violence against Western targets by Islamic groups. While the FPI attack doesn't compare to the Bali bombings of 2002, the blasts at Jakarta's Marriott Hotel last year and the Australian Embassy last month, it fits the pattern that makes Westerners reluctant to visit Indonesia, let alone live, work or invest there. It makes headlines: "Muslim group plans more anti-booze attacks," wrote Reuters.
More than changes in some obscure tax regulations or a proposed new law that will go to the bottom of the legislature's in-tray, a forceful statement by SBY against the attack and the law enforcement failure behind it would have produced an equally strong counter headline: Indonesia's new president condemns radical Muslims.
A sharp public statement against vigilantes would have sent a message that there's a new sheriff in town and lawlessness will no longer be tolerated. (The second terrorism trial of alleged Jemaah Islamiyah leader Abu Bakar Ba'asyir opened on Thursday, but that's not a proper situation for presidential grandstanding.) Instead, SBY greeted the attack and police reaction to it with a silence worthy of Megawati. That's no way to win a war on terror, nor hearts and minds in a public relations war.
[Gary LaMoshi, a longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He has worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and Indonesia.]