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Pre-election activities prompt Suharto health doubt

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Radio Australia - December 13, 2003

Many Indonesians are asking just how unwell former president Suharto really is, amid mounting speculation that he's stagemanaging his daughter's political comeback. In September 2000, a court ruled Mr Suharto was mentally and physically unfit to stand trial on corruption charges. But since then, he has been photographed meeting prominent political figures, fuelling speculation that his initial diagnosis may have been flawed.

Presenter/Interviewer: James Panichi

Speakers: Tim Meisburger, director of election programs, Asia Foundation; Meliono Suwando, PDI-P; Professor Dimyati Hartono, former PDI-P deputy chairman.

Panichi: If polls are anything to go by, the Suharto family's political comeback could be just around the corner.

Earlier this month a prominent news website found that Siti Hardiyanti – better known as Tutut – could rely on the support of up to 32 per cent of the country's 140 million eligible voters.

That was followed by a survey of over one thousand people by the Jakarta office of the Asia Foundation think-tank.

It found 53 per cent of voters would be ready to sacrifice personal freedoms, to elect a more authoritarian political figure, capable of maintaining law and order.

Some media outlets read that statistic as support for the strong and of controversial leadership of Mr Suharto, who was ousted in 1998.

However, the Asia Foundation's director of election programs, Tim Meisburger, says there's more to the figures than meets the eye.

Meisburger: "When we look at those people that support a stronger leader, we also see that those same people are the most likely to support democratic values, and to know the most about democracy.

"So, the way we interpret that is that those people are actually frustrated with government performance, and that they are actually hoping for better government performance, rather than actually supporting autocratic government."

Panichi: And so, you wouldn't interpret it as a sense of nostalgia for the certainty of the Suharto days?

Meisburger: "There could be some nostalgia for that, but I think when we look in general at the survey results, we see that the majority of Indonesians are moving forward in the democratic transition, and we don't think they want to go back to that sort of lifestyle."

Panichi: If that's the case, it would be good news for the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle, or PDI-P, led by president Megawati Sukarnoputri.

That's because parts of the electorate may be dissatisfied with the PDI-P's performance, yet that doesn't mean they want to return to the Suharto family.

Nonetheless, the former president's long shadow over his daughter's presidential campaign has upset many prominent political figures.

The PDI-P's Meliono Suwando says he's particularly concerned about recent newspaper photos, which cast doubts over Mr Suharto's claim to be in poor health.

Suwando: "Ah, I think he's still in a good condition, in good health. What happened in the newspaper, that his is not healthy, that his heart condition is very bad, I think is only a trick, a movement of his supporters to cover for him."

Panichi: Do you think, then, that he should stand trial for corruption?

Suwando: "Oh, yeah. I had a proposal three years ago. It's best for Suharto to go to trial, but after the decision, then we release him. Because, like it or not, he has some positive points for this country.

"So, I think we have to teach people that if you do something wrong, then you have to be punished."

Panichi: Do you think, though, that the Indonesian people are prepared to forgive Mr Suharto for the past, and perhaps accept his daughter as a future leader?

Suwando: "Most people have forgiven – that's why there are no demonstrations against Suharto any more. But that's not a good condition for this country. We need to teach people to do good, and not to do something wrong."

Panichi: And a high profile examination of Mr Suharto's legacy would enhance the PDI-P's political prospects.

Siti Hardiyanti was minister of social affairs in the dying stages of the Suharto government. Her personal wealth is estimated at around 2 billion US-dollars, through investments in a range of Indonesian companies.

And many Indonesian political organisations believe resentment over the Suharto family fortune – estimated at 45 billion dollars – can still offer political traction.

Professor Dimyati Hartono is a former PDI-P deputy chairman, whose very public falling out with President Megawati led him to abandon the party.

Yet he too believes that whatever reservations people might have about the current government, few would be prepared to support Tutut's bid for the presidency.

Hartono: "I don't think that it will be so easy for his daughter to run for the presidency, because now we can see the negative reaction about her appearance.

"People did not forget the bad experience, in political terms, legally, human rights ... People have suffered during the period of Mr Suharto."

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