Jerry Norton, Banda Aceh – It looks like its going to be a long haul for Indonesian security forces fighting separatist rebels in Aceh.

The government is expected to announce on Thursday an extension of martial law in the province, and security officials in the provincial capital of 400,000 are careful to avoid predicting when it and the military campaign will end.

That was not supposed to be the scenario when 45,000 military and police began a six-month offensive in May against about 5,000 Free Aceh Movement (GAM) fighters in the resource-rich, staunchly Muslim province on the northern tip of Sumatra island.

Indonesian military (TNI) chief Endriartono Sutarto told his troops their job was "to destroy the armed forces of GAM through to their roots", reducing it to its "smallest unit" in six months, a target that coincided with the planned end of martial law in the province.

But in September, Sutarto said: "We can't pinpoint when we can paralyse GAM," adding that whether martial law was extended was up to President Megawati Sukarnoputri. It seems nearly a certainty that she will.

Does that mean the campaign, launched with a parachute drop of hundreds of troops, has had no successes? Not according to Sutarto, who said it had reduced GAM's strength.

Conditions have become safer, the Aceh military spokesman, Colonel Ditya Soedarsono, said this week in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh, 1,700 km northwest of Jakarta.

"Transportation in Aceh is running very well and the food supply is not upset," he said. Certainly there is no sense of danger at the military headquarters where Soedarsono is based.

More soldiers have cell phones than sidearms holstered on belts. A single sentry guards the drive to the main door.

'Relatively good'

Banda Aceh as a whole resembled an armed camp in May, with armoured vehicles, rifle-toting soldiers and checkpoints, but now there is little to suggest anything but normality. In contrast, hotels and office buildings in Jakarta, where Muslim militants have launched bomb attacks, have more guards and barricades.

Many citizens say they feel safer now, and a human rights activist critical of martial law said improvements were not confined to the capital. "We have to concede the situation is relatively good now outside of Banda Aceh," the activist said.

But TNI spokesman Soedarsono said problems remain. "There are key persons from GAM who are not captured yet, and these key persons will make problems in the future because they will seek revenge." Soedarsono's police counterpart, Colonel Sayed Hoesainy, said GAM fighters had stashed weapons. "And if the security operation stops, then the GAM will return and they will take the guns back." Security officials also spoke of GAM members "melting into society" ready to strike again, as well as maintaining fighting units in remote and rugged parts of the mountainous province, harassing farmers and fishermen.

A Jakarta-based Western diplomat who declined to be identified said the campaign had achieved some success. "That said, the government has not destroyed GAM as a military force and has not captured major GAM military figures."

Hearts and minds

GAM has been fighting the government for 27 years, surviving numerous offensives. Before the latest, about 10,000 people, most of them civilians, had been killed. In this campaign, official counts say the military has killed more than 1,000 rebels and captured nearly 900, while security forces have suffered dead in double-digits.

GAM has told a different story, and has also said the government was responsible for significant civilian casualties. Soedarsono denied that, saying military tactics were designed to avoid civilian deaths.

Casualty figures are hard to verify. The government restricts entry and movement in the province of four million by media and other observers.

Security officials said they were working to win public support and backed non-military elements of the offensive such as improving humanitarian and political conditions.

The Western diplomat said that while military pressure might eventually force a negotiated peace, it could backfire by creating more alienated Acehnese and rebel recruits.

Fachry Ali, an analyst at a Jakarta-based think-tank, told Reuters: "From the start I'm against the military operation, but now we are at a point where pulling out completely is not feasible." Comparing the situation to the US position in Iraq, he added: "I'm afraid if troops pull out now there will be more chaos because those who have been suffering from the operation may take revenge against those who have been siding with the troops."