Matthew Moore, Jakarta – With as many as 12,000 people killed in Indonesia's Aceh province over the past 26 years, a ceasefire agreement due for signing on Monday is long overdue.

Despite the years of bloodshed, it is hard to be confident that the Indonesian Government and the Free Aceh Movement, or GAM, will both turn up in Geneva and put their names on the line.

And if they do, it is harder still to believe any agreement will stick, that the guns will be put down, and that life in this remote province on Sumatra's northern tip will move towards a peace that many of the 4.4 million inhabitants have never known.

That there is a document to be signed and a date for doing so is remarkable enough, given the antipathy between GAM and the Indonesian security forces.

The past few days give a fair insight into the distrust that has been built up over years of attempts by the security forces to crush GAM.

On Monday one of GAM's military commanders named Amirullah and his companion were arrested by the notorious Brimob police, who shot them both dead, claiming they had attempted to escape.

GAM's military field commander, Amri Adbul Wahab, rejected the police version of events, insisting the two had been executed. He then promised GAM would pursue the police and get square, a threat history says should be taken seriously.

Two days later, on the 26th anniversary of GAM's fight for independence, Indonesian soldiers were shinning up flagpoles and tearing down banned GAM flags, which they burnt in front of television cameras. At one flagpole though, GAM's booby trap worked. It killed a policeman and injured an army officer.

It has been going on like this for years in Aceh, except that many of those killed, abused and tortured are Acehnese civilians caught up in the bitter struggle between GAM's guerilla army and a security force that has swelled to nearly 30,000.

Trying to mediate in this environment has been a Swiss-based humanitarian group called the Henry Dunant Centre. Over several years it has managed to bring the parties closer together, although not so close that they actually talk to each other.

Rather, the framework agreement due to be signed on Monday has been put together in a type of shuttle diplomacy where drafts have been taken to each side for modification and approval.

Just what the document now says is not publicly known, but important points agreed include:

• Establishment of a free and fair election process; _Cessation of acts of violence and intimidation, destruction of belongings, illegal arrests, attacks and raids;
• Establishment of a Joint Security Committee to monitor security, investigate violations and act as a point of reference for all complaints related to police functions;
• Establishment of a Joint Demilitarising Committee to disarm both sides; and _Both parties to immediately order their forces to cease hostilities once the truce documents are signed.

These are all important points, and there are plenty more like them, but numerous issues not yet finalised make the road ahead look very difficult. They include the highly sensitive issue of how and when both sides will be disarmed.

Without its weapons, GAM has no ability to bargain and it is extremely dubious about surrendering its guns. Its leaders have suggested a six-month moratorium before handing in weapons at agreed storage points but the military says the guns must be handed in immediately.

There is also a fundamental point of difference between GAM and the Indonesian Government which is not addressed.

GAM wants an independent Aceh, in the same way East Timor is now independent, and does not accept that a ceasefire extinguishes that option. Although former president Abdurrahman Wahid talked of allowing a referendum on this question, he was forced to back down in the face of a major backlash. There are now virtually no prospects of Indonesia's Government again changing its position.

With the Indonesian Government insistent no political party in Aceh will be allowed to campaign on an independence platform, GAM has no way of substituting a political campaign for the military one it's supposed to abandon.

And while GAM and the Indonesian Government are critical players in this dispute, the Acehnese people are not represented. Some representatives have been to Geneva during the negotiations, but they do not yet have the voice they need.