Jane Perlez, Denpasar – His fingers clasp a long brush and with the finest of strokes, Nyoman Kantor paints the figures of a Balinese myth onto eggshell. Luscious reds, greens and yellows sparkle on the egg, a memento popular with tourists who come to Mr. Kantor's outdoor studio and salesroom. Roughly speaking, these $10 eggs are Bali's answer to Fabergi's jeweled versions of a century ago.
But these days, business is about as slow as it has ever been. Bali's tourism collapsed after the terrorist attack on a disco in October, and the return of the foreign visitors is only slowly starting again.
In the weeks after the attack, Mr. Kantor, 48, said he did not sell any of his goose eggs. They take two days to paint, and he makes about a $5 profit on each one. "I haven't been to the hotels to sell because there are so few customers," he said.
About half of Bali's economy is based on tourism, according to the World Bank, a heavy reliance for a society accustomed to some of the highest standards of living in Indonesia. In the last decade, rice fields have been eaten up by hotel developments in the southern half of the island, and increasing numbers of Balinese have moved from agricultural livelihoods to work in tourism.
Hoteliers say each room generates 25 jobs: receptionists, cooks, gardeners, money-changers, guides, dancers for nighttime entertainment, even lifeguards for protection at the beach.
Indications of an early recovery are not encouraging, economists say. Many upmarket hotels are reporting occupancy rates of less than 20 percent. Some low-rent hotels have closed temporarily. Taxi drivers complain they have few passengers. Some stores are offering sizable discounts for their carved wood furniture and trendy clothes.
The World Bank says about 1.7 million people work in Bali, and according to the direst estimates, as many as half could become unemployed if the tourism continues to slump.
But the worst may not happen. Much depends on how fast the investigation into the terrorist attack proceeds, economists say. If the inquiry proceeds quickly and suspects continue to be arrested, foreign governments will consider removing the travel warnings that are discouraging tourists, Western officials predict.
Japan, Singapore and other Asian countries do not have travel warnings on Indonesia, and their citizens are traveling again to Bali. The United States, Australia and Britain have not significantly modified the travel warnings they issued after the terrorist attack. Security has been visibly improved at the airport at Denpasar and the major hotels now have policemen patrolling their grounds.
While Bali waits for the foreigners to return, the Bali Tourism Board has begun a campaign to stimulate the domestic market. The idea was to fill vacant hotel rooms with Indonesians, who often take time off after Ramadan. The response has been good, said the minister of trade, Rini Mariani Soewandi.
"We have to get Garuda to restore the flights they have cut," she said, referring to the national airline. One of the biggest problems facing the Balinese is how to maintain their standard of living.
"All the social indicators in Bali are above average," said K. Sarwar Lateef, the senior adviser to the World Bank in Indonesia. "There are strong traditions of schooling." The World Bank is working on a plan to ensure that parents who become unemployed can still pay their children's school fees, he said.
Another challenge is how to help the Balinese who have loans to pay back. Mr. Kantor's 23-year-old son, I Made Muliana, who is also an egg painter, recently bought a motorbike. "The bike is good for going to the hotels to sell," said Mr. Muliana. He owes the bank $30 a month for the next three years, he said. How was he going to pay the installments? Mr. Muliana shrugged.
At the Oberoi Hotel, a five-star resort on the ocean, many employees have taken loans, said the general manager, Kamal K. Kaul. About 75 percent of staff salaries came from service charges placed on customers' bills, he said.
"For two decades staff incomes have been going up," Mr. Kaul said. "This attack is something they never dreamed would happen. These realities of modern life the Balinese will have to learn to cope with." Like most people involved with Bali, Mr. Kaul was relatively upbeat. On the commercial side, Christmas bookings were holding, he said.
The Hindu religious leaders have appealed to the Balinese to stay calm. "For the Balinese, life is all about seeking balance," Mr. Kaul said. "Many are reverting to prayer." In a signal of long-term confidence, Starbucks still plans to open in Bali, said Anthony Cottan, the country general manager.
A Starbucks store was planned not far from the Sari Club, the target of the attack that killed more than 180 people, Mr. Cottan said. "Our plan was to open in the first quarter next year. We feel that there might be only a six-month delay," he said. "We're still very enthusiastic."