Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – The conviction of parliamentary Speaker Akbar Tandjung, the second case in which a politically connected person has been sentenced to jail in the past two months, is being seen as another positive step for Indonesia's legal system.
But the guilty verdict [of three years jail - JB] for the head of the Golkar party, which holds the second-largest number of seats in Parliament and is the main coalition partner of President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P), is likely to cause some turmoil on the political stage.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic that the ruling is a positive step in Jakarta's drive to clean up the legal system, widely criticised as corrupt.
In another high-profile case in July, Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra, the son of former president Suharto, was sentenced to 15 years in jail for masterminding the assassination of a Supreme Court justice.
"It could be interpreted that way – that the courts are independent of political pressure," said Mr Ibrahim Assegaf of the Centre for the Study of Legal Policy.
"However this is just one instance. In the case of the human-rights trials, for instance, the judges relied too much on prosecutors' recommendations," he added, referring to recent rulings where several police and military officers were acquitted of human-rights abuse in East Timor.
However, there was criticism of the light sentence handed out to Mr Akbar and the judges' failure to order his immediate detention. Some saw this as a sign of political pressure.
"This case shows that some judges are good but they cannot escape political interference," said Mr Andi Asrun of Judicial Watch.
Added Mr Ibrahim: "It is too light when you consider drug trafficking cases where much higher sentences are given." Mr Andi also noted that Mr Akbar will escape immediate imprisonment because he will appeal against his conviction.
And as his sentence was less than five years, his lawyers will be able to argue that he should not be imprisoned pending the appeal. The decision not to imprison Mr Akbar will allow him to carry on as leader of Golkar and as Speaker, thus minimising the political fallout at least over the short term.
But his future as a presidential or vice-presidential hopeful for the 2004 elections has clearly taken a knock and Golkar's political future also looks dimmer.
Mr Tomi Legowo, an analyst, said: "The party will be split as it scrambles to find new leaders, and this will reduce its chances for 2004." If Mr Akbar is allowed to continue operating – just as central bank governor Syahril Sabirin remained in office despite a graft conviction while appealing against his case – this would be a perfect and a very Indonesian way of political compromise.
The appeal, which could take a year or more, would allow Golkar to find a new leader and still allow for some cooperation with the PDI-P. Potential Golkar leaders include Social Welfare Minister Jusuf Kalla, Golkar stalwart Fahmi Idris, Suharto-era minister Agung Laksono and former attorney-general Marzuki Darusman.
However, analysts expect that there will be some political instability as Golkar begins to exact political retribution on the PDI-P.
The secular Golkar is a natural ally of the nationalist PDI-P and it has worked easily as a majority against the Muslim parties. That could change.
"There is a loose collaboration between the two parties and with Akbar out, there would be increasing political bargaining and political blackmailing," said political analyst Hermawan Sulistiyo. For example, Golkar could threaten to expose corruption within the PDI-P if some of its demands were not met.